Abstract

Possible climate changes in Russia during the 21st century are considered based on the INM-CM5-0 climate model. According to the SSP3-7.0 scenario, the warming by 5–8°C in winter and by 3–4.5°C in summer are expected in Russia at the end of the 21st century. Minimum annual temperatures will rise faster than winter mean ones. Maximum annual temperatures will rise faster that summer mean ones. An increase in precipitation will occur across Russia in winter, while its decrease is expected in southern and central European Russia and in the south of Western Siberia in summer. The contribution of light precipitation will decrease, while the contribution of heavy and very heavy precipitation will increase. An increase in annual mean river runoff and a decrease in upper soil moisture in summer are expected nearly everywhere in Russia.

中文翻译：

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基于INM-CM5-0气候模型的21世纪俄罗斯可能发生的气候变化

摘要

基于 INM-CM5-0 气候模型考虑了俄罗斯在 21 世纪可能发生的气候变化。根据 SSP3-7.0 情景，预计 21 世纪末俄罗斯冬季升温 5-8°C，夏季升温 3-4.5°C。年最低气温将比冬季平均气温上升得更快。年最高气温将比夏季平均气温上升得更快。冬季俄罗斯的降水量将增加，而预计俄罗斯南部和中欧以及西西伯利亚南部的夏季降水量将减少。轻降水的贡献会减少，而强降水和特强降水的贡献会增加。预计俄罗斯几乎所有地方都会出现年平均河流径流增加和夏季上层土壤水分减少的情况。