当前位置: X-MOL 学术Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol. › 论文详情
Our official English website, www.x-mol.net, welcomes your feedback! (Note: you will need to create a separate account there.)
Bayesian Projections of the Amur and Selenga River Runoff Changes in the 21st Century Based on CMIP6 Model Ensemble Simulations
Russian Meteorology and Hydrology ( IF 0.7 ) Pub Date : 2022-08-12 , DOI: 10.3103/s1068373922050065
A. S. Lipavskii, A. V. Eliseev, I. I. Mokhov

Abstract

The analysis is carried out for changes in runoff of the Amur and Selenga rivers in the 21st century according to the CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6) climate model ensemble simulations using the Bayesian approach versus stream gage data on annual runoff and GPCP-2.3 dataset on annual precipitation over catchments on different timescales. For both catchments, significant intermodel differences are associated with the projections of multiyear mean runoff and interannual variability. The intermodel distribution of Bayesian weights indicates a high role of uncertainty related to initial conditions for model simulations. There is a positive trend in total runoff in the Amur River basin in the 21st century under all analyzed anthropogenic forcing scenarios. For total runoff of the Selenga River, there are no trends in the 21st century for all analyzed scenarios. No significant trends for the Amur and Selenga surface runoff were revealed for all algorithms for considering Bayesian weights and all anthropogenic forcing scenarios. At the same time, significant interdecadal variations in the interannual variability of runoff were found.



中文翻译:

基于 CMIP6 模型集合模拟的 21 世纪阿穆尔河和色楞格河径流变化的贝叶斯预测

摘要

根据 CMIP6(耦合模型比对项目,第 6 阶段)气候模型集合模拟,使用贝叶斯方法与年径流和 GPCP 的流量计量数据进行了分析,以分析 21 世纪阿穆尔河和色楞格河的径流变化。 2.3 不同时间尺度流域年降水量数据集。对于这两个流域,显着的模型间差异与多年平均径流和年际变率的预测有关。贝叶斯权重的模型间分布表明与模型模拟的初始条件相关的不确定性的重要作用。在所有分析的人为强迫情景下,21 世纪阿穆尔河流域的总径流量均呈正趋势。对于色楞格河的总径流,所有分析的情景都没有 21 世纪的趋势。对于考虑贝叶斯权重和所有人为强迫情景的所有算法,Amur 和 Selenga 地表径流没有显着趋势。同时,径流年际变率存在显着的年代际变化。

更新日期:2022-08-12
down
wechat
bug