In this study, we investigate both the changes of tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall hazard in the United States under climate change and the relative importance of the factors that cause the changes. We find that under the SSP5 8.5 scenario, the 100-year TC rainfall level can increase by up to 320% along the U.S. coastline by the end of this century. The influence of TC rainfall-producing ability increase is more significant than the influence of TC frequency increase on the increase of the 100-year TC rainfall level (up to 180% vs. 60% increase). Among the different physical drivers for the increase in storm rainfall-producing ability, the increase of TC intensity is the leading factor, followed by changes in TC duration and atmospheric temperature. The projected increase of TC rainfall hazard is robust against the uncertainty in the TC frequency projection.

中文翻译：

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调查美国热带气旋降雨危害增加的物理驱动因素

在这项研究中，我们调查了气候变化下美国热带气旋（TC）降雨危害的变化以及导致变化的因素的相对重要性。我们发现，在 SSP5 8.5 情景下，到本世纪末，美国海岸线的 100 年 TC 降雨量水平可增加高达 320%。TC 产雨能力增加的影响比 TC 频率增加对 100 年 TC 降雨水平增加的影响更显着（增加 180% vs. 60%）。在暴雨产生能力增加的不同物理驱动因素中，TC强度的增加是主导因素，其次是TC持续时间和大气温度的变化。