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The Rise of ISIS as a Partial Surprise: An Open-Source Analysis on the Threat Evolution and Early Warnings in the United Kingdom
International Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence Pub Date : 2022-08-10 , DOI: 10.1080/08850607.2022.2095543
Aviva Guttmann

Abstract

Was the emergence of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) as a regional and global threat a strategic surprise? If so, what made it so difficult to anticipate? Based on an open-source analysis about developments in Syria and Iraq between April 2013 and June 2014, this article’s main argument is that ISIS’ rise to power was a partial surprise. Namely, specialists were aware of the broader long-term developments that led to ISIS’ rise to power but were surprised by the short-term elements that led to its fast surge. This article is the first systematic analysis of the local, regional, and international developments related to ISIS’ surge through the lens of UK quality media and nongovernmental organization reporting. By advancing knowledge of how terrorist movements emerge and at what point analysts identify them as threats, this article advances our understanding of early warnings related to a terrorist threat and what possibilities there are to counter it early on.



中文翻译:

ISIS 的崛起有些意外:英国威胁演变和早期预警的开源分析

摘要

伊拉克和叙利亚伊斯兰国(ISIS)作为地区和全球威胁的出现是否是一种战略意外?如果是这样,是什么让预测变得如此困难?基于对 2013 年 4 月至 2014 年 6 月期间叙利亚和伊拉克事态发展的公开分析,本文的主要论点是 ISIS 的崛起部分出人意料。也就是说,专家们意识到导致伊斯兰国崛起的更广泛的长期发展,但对导致其快速崛起的短期因素感到惊讶。本文首次通过英国优质媒体和非政府组织报道的视角,对与 ISIS 激增相关的地方、区域和国际发展进行了系统分析。通过增进对恐怖活动如何出现以及分析人员何时将其识别为威胁的了解,

更新日期:2022-08-10
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