The East Antarctic Ice Sheet contains the vast majority of Earth’s glacier ice (about 52 metres sea-level equivalent), but is often viewed as less vulnerable to global warming than the West Antarctic or Greenland ice sheets. However, some regions of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet have lost mass over recent decades, prompting the need to re-evaluate its sensitivity to climate change. Here we review the response of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to past warm periods, synthesize current observations of change and evaluate future projections. Some marine-based catchments that underwent notable mass loss during past warm periods are losing mass at present but most projections indicate increased accumulation across the East Antarctic Ice Sheet over the twenty-first century, keeping the ice sheet broadly in balance. Beyond 2100, high-emissions scenarios generate increased ice discharge and potentially several metres of sea-level rise within just a few centuries, but substantial mass loss could be averted if the Paris Agreement to limit warming below 2 degrees Celsius is satisfied.

东南极冰盖包含地球上绝大多数的冰川冰（相当于海平面 52 米），但通常被认为不像西南极或格陵兰冰盖那样容易受到全球变暖的影响。然而，近几十年来，东南极冰盖的一些地区已经失去了质量，这促使需要重新评估其对气候变化的敏感性。在这里，我们回顾了东南极冰盖对过去温暖时期的反应，综合了当前对变化的观察并评估了未来的预测。在过去的温暖时期经历了显着质量损失的一些基于海洋的集水区目前正在失去质量，但大多数预测表明，在 21 世纪，南极东部冰盖的积聚增加，使冰盖大体保持平衡。超过2100，