Purpose

This paper aims to investigate the link between uncertainty in banking and bank lending behavior, particularly shedding light on the modifying role of bank competition in the nexus.

Design/methodology/approach

The study uses a panel of Vietnamese banks over the 2007–2019 period for empirical analysis and the dispersion of shocks to bank-level variables to measure banking uncertainty. To strongly confirm our findings, the authors perform a battery of alternative checks based on different econometric techniques, including fixed effect regressions with Driscoll–Kraay standard errors, the two-step system generalized method of moments estimator and the least squares dummy variable-corrected estimator.

Findings

Uncertainty induces multifaceted unfavorable impacts on bank lending. Concretely, banks tend to restraint loan growth, suffer more credit risk, and charge higher lending rates during periods of higher uncertainty. Further investigation reveals that lending activities of banks with greater market power are less sensitive to adverse uncertainty shocks; in other words, increased competition in the banking system is associated with more substantial consequences of uncertainty on bank lending.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first attempt to simultaneously explore the impacts of uncertainty on quantity, quality and prices of bank lending. This paper also aim at putting forth the level of uncertainty particularly related to the banking sector. Importantly, examining the conditionality of the linkage between uncertainty and bank lending with respect to bank competition is entirely novel.

中文翻译：

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银行业的不确定性和贷款：银行竞争重要吗？

目的

本文旨在研究银行业的不确定性与银行贷款行为之间的联系，特别是揭示银行竞争在这种关系中的改变作用。

设计/方法论/途径

该研究利用 2007 年至 2019 年期间的越南银行样本进行实证分析，并分散银行层面变量的冲击来衡量银行业的不确定性。为了有力地证实我们的发现，作者基于不同的计量经济学技术进行了一系列替代检查，包括使用 Driscoll-Kraay 标准误的固定效应回归、矩估计器的两步系统广义方法和最小二乘虚拟变量校正估计器。

发现

不确定性给银行贷款带来多方面的不利影响。具体而言，在不确定性较高的时期，银行往往会抑制贷款增长，承受更大的信用风险，并收取更高的贷款利率。进一步调查显示，市场力量较大的银行的贷款活动对不利的不确定性冲击的敏感度较低；换句话说，银行体系竞争的加剧与银行贷款的不确定性产生更严重的后果有关。

原创性/价值

据作者所知，本研究是同时探讨不确定性对银行贷款数量、质量和价格影响的首次尝试。本文还旨在提出尤其与银行业相关的不确定性水平。重要的是，在银行竞争方面研究不确定性与银行贷款之间联系的条件是完全新颖的。