Russia’s expanding adaptation agenda and its limitations,Climate Policy

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Russia’s expanding adaptation agenda and its limitations
Climate Policy ( IF 6.056 ) Pub Date : 2022-08-09 , DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2022.2107981
Arild Moe ₁ , Erdem Lamazhapov ₁ , Oleg Anisimov ₂

Affiliation

ABSTRACT

Russian science has long warned of adverse climate impacts (also noting some positive effects), but state policies have been lacking. By analysing key policy documents over the last 15 years, this study identifies and explains the development of an adaptation policy. Most recently, a bureaucratic process set in motion by Russia’s ratification of the Paris Agreement produced a set of policy documents addressing adaptation to negative climate impacts. These documents employed a bureaucratic-administrative approach, and the effectiveness of expected measures can be questioned. From 2020, a deeper reassessment of climate challenges has evolved, triggered by radical climate changes observed in the Russian Arctic, but also by developments in international climate policies and the energy transition. Economic adaptation to these trends has come to the forefront, raising questions of the need for structural change in the Russian economy. Opposition to reform remains strong, but the scope for discussion of possible pathways has widened considerably. Further development of low-carbon policies in Russia are contingent on international cooperation and integration of Russia in the world economy. The isolation of Russia, following the invasion of Ukraine, will make it difficult to influence Russian climate policies.

Key policy insights

Unlike the West, Russian climate policy has focused on adaptation, rather than mitigation. But policies have been weak, and adaptation not mainstreamed.
Detailed recommendations for adaptation to climate change impacts adopted in 2021 signalled higher political attention, but framed adaptation largely as a technical task.
Since 2020, a broader climate change and adaptation discourse entered Russian politics where adaptation to international climate policies and the energy transition is at the centre.
Debate on Russia’s role in the changing energy market had started, but the invasion of Ukraine and the ensuing international isolation of Russia is likely to reduce Russia’s capacity and incentives to carry out low-carbon policies.
Western countries will have to consider how they can provide climate policy incentives to Russia in the new international situation, as Russia will remain essential for the success of the climate regime. Science diplomacy may become important.

中文翻译：

俄罗斯不断扩大的适应议程及其局限性

摘要

俄罗斯科学长期以来一直警告不利的气候影响（也注意到一些积极影响），但国家政策一直缺乏。通过分析过去 15 年的主要政策文件，本研究确定并解释了适应政策的发展。最近，由俄罗斯批准《巴黎协定》启动的官僚程序产生了一套政策文件，以解决适应负面气候影响的问题。这些文件采用了官僚行政方式，预期措施的有效性可能会受到质疑。从 2020 年开始，对气候挑战的更深入的重新评估已经演变，这是由在俄罗斯北极观察到的剧烈气候变化引发的，也是由国际气候政策和能源转型的发展引发的。经济适应这些趋势已经走到了最前沿，提出了俄罗斯经济是否需要进行结构性改革的问题。对改革的反对依然强烈，但对可能途径的讨论范围已大大扩大。俄罗斯低碳政策的进一步发展取决于俄罗斯在世界经济中的国际合作和融入。俄罗斯在入侵乌克兰后处于孤立状态，这将使其难以影响俄罗斯的气候政策。