Projected dry/wet regimes in China using SPEI under four SSP-RCPs based on statistically downscaled CMIP6 data,International Journal of Climatology

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Projected dry/wet regimes in China using SPEI under four SSP-RCPs based on statistically downscaled CMIP6 data
International Journal of Climatology ( IF 3.9 ) Pub Date : 2022-08-03 , DOI: 10.1002/joc.7824
Xinguo Chen _{1,

2,

3} , Yi Li ₁ , Ning Yao ₁ , De Li Liu _{4,

5} , Qingzhu Liu ₁ , Xiaoyan Song ₁ , Fenggui Liu ₆ , Bakhtiyor Pulatov ₇ , Qingtao Meng ₈ , Puyu Feng ₉

Affiliation

College of Water Resources and Architecture Engineering Northwest Agriculture and Forestry University Yangling Shaanxi P. R. China
Chinese‐Israeli International Center for Research and Training in Agriculture China Agricultural University Beijing P. R. China
Center for Agricultural Water Research in China China Agricultural University Beijing P. R. China
NSW Department of Primary Industries Wagga Wagga Agricultural Institute Wagga Wagga NSW Australia
Climate Change Research Centre University of New South Wales Sydney NSW Australia
Academy of Plateau Science and Sustainability Qinghai Normal University Xining P. R. China
Tashkent Institute of Irrigation and Agricultural Mechanization Engineers ‐ National Research University, Qoriy Niyoziy 39 Tashkent Uzbekistan
Office of Rural Revitalization Northwest Agriculture and Forestry University Yangling P. R. China
College of land science and technology China Agricultural University Beijing P. R. China

Dry/wet conditions are one of the key constituents of climate change. The understanding of dry/wet variability is vital for production and water resources management. In this research, the temporal variations of 12-month timescale standardized precipitation evapotranspiration (SPEI) over 2021–2100 under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios in seven subregions and China's mainland were investigated over the baseline period of 1961–2000. The run theory was used to project the variations of dry/wet frequency, duration and severity at different levels during 1961–2000, 2021–2060 and 2061–2100 based on the estimated SPEI. The results showed that dry tendency would occur in northwest China. The linear trend for SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 were −0.056, −0.031, 0.009 and −0.072 per decade, respectively. While wet tendency would occur in the other regions over 2021–2100. The mild, moderate and severe dry/wet duration and severity over 2021–2060 and 2061–2100 would gradually decrease. Except for northwest China and Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, the extreme drought duration and severity would increase in the other subregions, while the extreme wet duration and severity would increase in most regions of China. The drought frequency in north China would range from 0 to 14 times and be smaller than the other regions over 2021–2060 and 2060–2100. However, the wet frequency in south China would be larger than that in the other regions. The dry/wet frequency duration and severity for the SSP5-8.5 scenario would be the largest among the four scenarios. The projected dry/wet conditions can provide useful information for future water resources management.

更新日期：2022-08-03

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