The future of the Aegean Sea demersal fishery is projected under four climatic and socio-political scenarios, namely: “World Markets“, “Global Sustainability”, “National Enterprise” and “Local Stewardship”. The scenarios combine two IPCC climatic futures (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) with four socio-political systems that foresee changes in economic, technological as well as management aspects of the fishery corresponding to four contrasting futures. The future projection of a large number of physico-chemical variables per climatic scenario, made available through CERES project (http://ceresproject.eu/), gave the opportunity to model the effects of Climate Change (CC) on the productivity of demersal stocks. The projections foresee an increase in primary productivity in the Aegean Sea waters, which is projected to become mesotrophic from currently oligotrophic, while statistical analysis suggests that mullet stocks might be favored, while the European hake stock is more likely to be in decline. The combined, as well as the individual, effects of the different components of change on the fishery are explored. With respect to management, the results demonstrate the key role of technical interactions in the attempt to achieve sustainable and optimally harvested fisheries. It is found that a minor reduction of effort can achieve sustainability and good yield (PGY) from key stocks. A main source of uncertainty stems from the large number of stocks that remain unassessed. The ongoing tropicalization of the Aegean Sea and the response of these other stocks to CC increases the uncertainty and creates new challenges but also new opportunities for the Aegean Sea demersal fishery.

爱琴海底层渔业的未来预计在四种气候和社会政治情景下进行，即：“世界市场”、“全球可持续性”、“国家企业”和“地方管理”。这些情景将两个 IPCC 气候未来（RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5）与四个社会政治系统相结合，这些系统预见了与四种截然不同的未来相对应的渔业经济、技术和管理方面的变化。通过 CERES 项目 (http://ceresproject.eu/) 提供的每种气候情景的大量物理化学变量的未来预测提供了模拟气候变化 (CC) 对底层生产力的影响的机会股票。预测预计爱琴海水域的初级生产力将提高，预计将从目前的贫营养变为中营养，而统计分析表明鲻鱼种群可能受到青睐，而欧洲鳕鱼种群更有可能下​​降。探讨了变化的不同组成部分对渔业的综合影响以及个体影响。在管理方面，结果表明技术互动在实现可持续和最佳捕捞渔业的尝试中的关键作用。研究发现，稍微减少工作量就可以实现关键库存的可持续性和良好产量 (PGY)。不确定性的一个主要来源是大量未评估的股票。