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Towards a dramatic reduction in the European Natural Gas consumption: Italy as a case study
Journal of Cleaner Production ( IF 11.1 ) Pub Date : 2022-08-01 , DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.133377
Lorenzo Mario Pastore , Gianluigi Lo Basso , Livio de Santoli

In recent months, gas prices have reached unprecedented levels, hurting the European economy and exacerbating energy poverty conditions. This paper deals with investigating measures for a rapid reduction in the Italian natural gas (NG) consumption. The aim is to assess and quantify energy, economic, social and environmental impacts of different strategies to be implemented promptly. Several solutions, such as utility and residential PV systems, Wind plants, biomethane, green hydrogen and heat pumps, have been analysed. Different implementation levels of such solutions have been simulated in combination with each other by means of the MATLAB Toolbox for EnergyPLAN. The NG Abatement Cost (NGAC) has been calculated. That indicator allows an immediate evaluation of economic benefits comparing it with current and future NG spot prices and potential import alternatives. The NGAC of the best strategies is between 40 and 70 €/MWh depending on the amount of achieved savings. Less than 80 billion in total investment leads to a NG reduction of 75 TWh/year at an average abatement cost of about 70 €/MWh. That entails an employment impact of 640,000 temporary jobs and 30,000 permanent jobs along with an emission reduction of 21.5 MtCO2/year. Under the highest implementation of such measures, future average NG spot prices higher than 50 €/MWh allow to reduce GHG emissions implying decarbonisation costs lower than 80 €/tCO2. Furthermore, three Carbon Abatement Cost curves by changing the NG prices have been elaborated. The findings of this work show how current high NG prices can be an opportunity to speed up the transition process towards decarbonised energy systems.



中文翻译:

大幅减少欧洲天然气消费量:以意大利为例

近几个月来,天然气价格达到了前所未有的水平,损害了欧洲经济并加剧了能源贫困状况。本文探讨了快速减少意大利天然气 (NG) 消耗量的措施。目的是评估和量化迅速实施的不同战略对能源、经济、社会和环境的影响。已经分析了几种解决方案,例如公用事业和住宅光伏系统、风力发电厂、生物甲烷、绿色氢和热泵。借助 MATLAB Toolbox for EnergyPLAN,已经对此类解决方案的不同实施级别进行了相互结合的仿真。NG已计算减排成本 (NGAC)。该指标可以立即评估经济效益,并将其与当前和未来的天然气现货价格和潜在的进口替代品进行比较。最佳策略的 NGAC 介于 40 到 70 欧元/MWh 之间,具体取决于实现的节省量。不到 800 亿的总投资导致每年减少 75 太瓦时的天然气,平均减排成本约为 70 欧元/兆瓦时。这意味着 640,000 个临时工作岗位和 30,000 个长期工作岗位的就业影响以及 21.5 Mt CO2/ 年的减排量。在此类措施的最高实施情况下,高于 50 欧元/兆瓦时的未来平均天然气现货价格允许减少温室气体排放,这意味着脱碳成本低于 80 欧元/吨二氧化碳. 此外,通过改变天然气价格制定了三个碳减排成本曲线。这项工作的结果表明,当前的高天然气价格如何成为加速向脱碳能源系统过渡的机会。

更新日期:2022-08-06
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