Extreme sea level estimates are fundamental for mitigating against coastal flooding as they provide insight for defence engineering. As the global climate changes, rising sea levels combined with increases in storm intensity and frequency pose an increasing risk to coastline communities. We present a new method for estimating extreme sea levels that accounts for the effects of climate change on extreme events that are not accounted for by mean sea level trends. We follow a joint probabilities methodology, considering skew surge and peak tides as the only components of sea levels. We model extreme skew surges using a non-stationary generalised Pareto distribution (GPD) with covariates accounting for climate change, seasonality and skew surge-peak tide interaction. We develop methods to efficiently test for extreme skew surge trends across different coastlines and seasons. We illustrate our methods using data from four UK tide gauges.

中文翻译：

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在极端海平面估计中考虑气候变化

极端海平面估计是减轻沿海洪水的基础，因为它们为国防工程提供了洞察力。随着全球气候变化，海平面上升以及风暴强度和频率的增加对海岸线社区构成越来越大的风险。我们提出了一种估计极端海平面的新方法，该方法解释了气候变化对极端事件的影响，而这些极端事件没有被平均海平面趋势解释。我们遵循联合概率方法，将斜潮和潮汐峰值视为海平面的唯一组成部分。我们使用非平稳广义帕累托分布 (GPD) 对极端倾斜浪涌进行建模，其中协变量考虑了气候变化、季节性和倾斜浪涌峰值潮汐相互作用。我们开发了有效测试不同海岸线和季节的极端偏斜浪涌趋势的方法。我们使用来自四个英国潮汐测量仪的数据来说明我们的方法。