ABSTRACT

The Irish Climate Action Plan published in 2019 outlines the significant role that agriculture will have to take to achieve a national reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in Ireland. Recent growth in the agricultural sector, especially of the bovine population, however, has led to a continuous increase of agricultural greenhouse gas emissions. For the agricultural sector to meet its potential, greenhouse gas emission targets could be challenging. The agricultural sector model CAPRI is used to investigate the impact of a 20 per cent EU-wide agricultural greenhouse gas mitigation target on the Irish agriculture sector. Three scenarios, allowing the endogenous implementation of mitigation technologies, show the possible impact range of such a policy target. The research indicates that the Irish agriculture sector can achieve the set mitigation target by adapting livestock production systems, resulting in agricultural efficiency gains, and by implementing specific mitigation technologies. Without a mandatory mitigation target but with subsidies granted, changes in the level of agricultural greenhouse gas emissions are marginal, and voluntary adoption is limited. Subsidising the implementation of mitigation technologies can buffer the impact that a mitigation target will have on the agriculture sector in Ireland while achieving the set greenhouse gas emissions reduction. Total agricultural income increases if a mandatory target is set due to strong structural changes. As the analysis shows, the emission reduction is partly achieved through a reduction in total production and strong competitors outside of the EU appear to fill the occurring supply gap. This could potentially lead to a carbon leakage effect with production and emissions shifting towards strong ruminant-based producing countries.

Key policy insights

• Mitigation targets in the agricultural sector should be mandatory to achieve a sufficient reduction in greenhouse gas emissions.

• Subsidy payments targeted towards the implementation of mitigation technologies buffer the economic impact that a mitigation target will have on the productivity of the agriculture sector and enhance the scale of implemented mitigation technologies.

• Total agricultural income increases if a mandatory target is set due to strong structural changes.

• Mitigation targets can divert agricultural trade flows and potentially lead to carbon leakage.

摘要

2019 年发布的爱尔兰气候行动计划概述了农业为实现爱尔兰全国温室气体排放量减少所必须发挥的重要作用。然而，最近农业部门的增长，特别是牛群的增长，导致农业温室气体排放量不断增加。要使农业部门发挥其潜力，温室气体排放目标可能具有挑战性。农业部门模型 CAPRI 用于调查欧盟范围内 20% 的农业温室气体减排目标对爱尔兰农业部门的影响。允许内生实施缓解技术的三种情景显示了这种政策目标的可能影响范围。研究表明，爱尔兰农业部门可以通过调整畜牧生产系统来实现既定的减缓目标，从而提高农业效率，并实施特定的减缓技术。如果没有强制性的减排目标但给予补贴，农业温室气体排放水平的变化是微不足道的，自愿采用是有限的。补贴减缓技术的实施可以缓冲减缓目标对爱尔兰农业部门的影响，同时实现设定的温室气体减排。如果由于强烈的结构变化而设定了强制性目标，则农业总收入会增加。如分析所示，减排部分是通过减少总产量实现的，欧盟以外的强大竞争对手似乎填补了正在出现的供应缺口。随着生产和排放转向强大的反刍动物生产国，这可能会导致碳泄漏效应。

主要政策见解

• 农业部门的减排目标应该是强制性的，以实现温室气体排放的充分减少。

• 针对实施减缓技术的补贴支付缓冲减缓目标对农业部门生产力的经济影响，并扩大实施减缓技术的规模。

• 如果由于强烈的结构变化而设定了强制性目标，则农业总收入会增加。

• 减缓目标可以转移农业贸易流量，并可能导致碳泄漏。