The Mediterranean region is widely acknowledged as one of the most exposed in the world to the effects of climate change, water scarcity, biodiversity loss and land degradation, coupled with a nutrition transition of its populations. In such a context, to explore the evolution of the region is of both political and theoretical interest. This study presents the result of a scenario-building exercise, based on a Delphi method – an interactive forecasting technique – relying upon about 60 practitioners, experts and academics representing 19 Mediterranean countries and a wide range of disciplines and expertise. The present article has three main purposes. First, to identify the main challenges, trends and driving forces that influence the agri-food systems in the Mediterranean over a short (2020) and medium (2030) term. Second, to discuss the alternative policy responses to the challenges that the region will face in terms of water resource management, farming systems and agri-food value chains in terms of desirability and feasibility. Thirdly, to provide informed, evidence-based recommendations that might help different stakeholders to take action in the region’s agri-food sector. Based on this Delphi’s results, the study suggests that the gap between the countries in the South and the North of the Mediterranean in terms of challenges posed in water management, farming systems and the agri-food value chain is expected to grow. Experts agree that climate change is going to play a key role in the future of both sides of the Mediterranean, but with a differential impact in the sub-two regions. Nutrition-related challenges will exert a growing pressure especially in the Southern Mediterranean countries. A set of desirable and feasible policy option for addressing the Mediterranean food-related challenges are discussed.

地中海地区被广泛认为是世界上最容易受到气候变化、水资源短缺、生物多样性丧失和土地退化以及人口营养转变影响的地区之一。在这样的背景下，探索该地区的演变既具有政治意义，也具有理论意义。本研究展示了基于 Delphi 方法（一种交互式预测技术）的情景构建练习的结果，该方法依赖于代表 19 个地中海国家和广泛学科和专业知识的约 60 名从业者、专家和学者。本文有三个主要目的。首先，确定在短期（2020 年）和中期（2030 年）内影响地中海农业食品系统的主要挑战、趋势和驱动力。第二，从可取性和可行性的角度讨论该地区在水资源管理、耕作系统和农业食品价值链方面将面临的挑战的替代政策应对措施。第三，提供知情的、基于证据的建议，以帮助不同的利益相关者在该地区的农业食品部门采取行动。根据德尔福的这项研究结果，该研究表明，地中海南部和北部国家在水资源管理、农业系统和农业食品价值链方面所面临的挑战方面的差距预计会扩大。专家们一致认为，气候变化将在地中海两岸的未来中发挥关键作用，但对这两个地区的影响不同。与营养相关的挑战将施加越来越大的压力，尤其是在南地中海国家。讨论了一套可取和可行的政策选择，以应对地中海食品相关挑战。