Mean orbital elements play a significant role in constellation guidance, orbital maintenance, and transfer strategy design. Hence, research on mean orbital elements estimation flourishes with the development of mega-constellation construction, for instance, the Starlink program. This paper investigates the autonomous on-orbit estimation problem of mean orbital elements under the consideration of real-time mean orbital elements acquisition, reliable mean orbital elements prediction, and extreme condition handling of state jumping caused by protective orbit transfer or nonfatal spacecraft collision. A novel mean orbital elements estimator based on the Savitzky–Golay filter (“Smoothing and Differentiation of Data by Simplified Least Squares Procedures,” Analytical Chemistry, Vol. 36, No. 8, 1964, pp. 1627–1639) with adaptive frame size, maneuvering detector, and multimode switching mechanism is proposed. Adaptive frame size according to the orbital period for completing the Savitzky–Golay process guarantees the estimation efficiency and accuracy of mean orbital elements estimation and prediction. Then, the prediction value is employed to generate the mean orbital elements difference compared with the estimation. Finally, the mean orbital elements difference is adopted to govern the satellite state detector for mode switching. Comparison simulations for both with and without state jumping are conducted, and the results demonstrate the superiority of the mean orbital elements estimator over the direct mapping method and the Savitzky–Golay filter in estimation efficiency, accuracy, and range of application.

平均轨道要素在星座引导、轨道维护和转移策略设计中发挥着重要作用。因此，平均轨道要素估计的研究随着巨型星座建设的发展而蓬勃发展，例如星链计划。本文在考虑实时平均轨道元素获取、可靠的平均轨道元素预测以及保护轨道转移或非致命航天器碰撞引起的状态跳跃的极端条件处理的考虑下，研究平均轨道元素的自主在轨估计问题。一种基于 Savitzky–Golay 滤波器的新型平均轨道元素估计器（“Smoothing and Differentiation of Data by Simplified Least Squares Procedures,” Analytical Chemistry，卷。36, No. 8, 1964, pp. 1627–1639) 提出了具有自适应帧大小、机动检测器和多模式切换机制的方案。根据轨道周期自适应帧大小以完成 Savitzky-Golay 过程，保证了平均轨道元素估计和预测的估计效率和准确性。然后，使用预测值生成与估计值相比的平均轨道元素差异。最后，采用平均轨道元素差来控制卫星状态检测器进行模式切换。对有和没有状态跳跃的情况进行了比较模拟，结果表明平均轨道元素估计器在估计效率、准确性和应用范围方面优于直接映射方法和 Savitzky-Golay 滤波器。