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Robustness of stochastic programs with endogenous randomness via contamination
European Journal of Operational Research ( IF 6.4 ) Pub Date : 2022-07-20 , DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2022.07.025
Miloš Kopa , Tomáš Rusý

Investigating stability of stochastic programs with respect to changes in the underlying probability distributions represents an important step before deploying any model to production. Often, the uncertainty in stochastic programs is not perfectly known, thus it is approximated. The stochastic distribution’s misspecification and approximation errors can affect model solution, consequently leading to suboptimal decisions. It is of utmost importance to be aware of such errors and to have an estimate of their influence on the model solution. One approach, which estimates the possible impact of such errors, is the contamination technique. The methodology studies the effect of perturbation in the probability distribution by some contaminating distribution on the optimal value of stochastic programs. Lower and upper bounds, for the optimal values of perturbed stochastic programs, have been developed for numerous types of stochastic programs with exogenous randomness. In this paper, we first extend the current results by developing a tighter lower bound applicable to wider range of problems. Thereafter, we define contamination for decision-dependent randomness stochastic programs and prove various lower and upper bounds. We split the various cases into two separate sub-classes based on whether the feasibility set is fixed or decision-dependent and discuss several tractable formulations. Finally, we illustrate the contamination results on a real example of a stochastic program with endogenous randomness from a financial industry.



中文翻译:

通过污染具有内生随机性的随机程序的稳健性

研究随机程序相对于基础概率分布变化的稳定性是将任何模型部署到生产环境之前的重要一步。通常,随机程序中的不确定性并不完全已知,因此它是近似的。随机分布的错误指定和近似误差会影响模型求解,从而导致次优决策。了解此类错误并估计它们对模型解决方案的影响至关重要。一种估计此类错误可能影响的方法是污染技术。该方法研究了一些污染分布对概率分布的扰动对随机程序最优值的影响。下限和上限,对于扰动随机程序的最优值,已经为许多类型的具有外生随机性的随机程序开发了。在本文中,我们首先通过开发适用于更广泛问题的更严格的下限来扩展当前结果。此后,我们为依赖于决策的随机性随机程序定义污染,并证明各种下限和上限。我们根据可行性集是固定的还是依赖于决策的,将各种情况分成两个单独的子类,并讨论了几个易于处理的公式。最后,我们通过金融行业内生随机性随机程序的真实示例来说明污染结果。我们首先通过开发适用于更广泛问题的更严格的下限来扩展当前结果。此后,我们为依赖于决策的随机性随机程序定义污染,并证明各种下限和上限。我们根据可行性集是固定的还是依赖于决策的,将各种情况分成两个单独的子类,并讨论了几个易于处理的公式。最后,我们通过金融行业内生随机性随机程序的真实示例来说明污染结果。我们首先通过开发适用于更广泛问题的更严格的下限来扩展当前结果。此后,我们为依赖于决策的随机性随机程序定义污染,并证明各种下限和上限。我们根据可行性集是固定的还是依赖于决策的,将各种情况分成两个单独的子类,并讨论了几个易于处理的公式。最后,我们通过金融行业内生随机性随机程序的真实示例来说明污染结果。我们根据可行性集是固定的还是依赖于决策的,将各种情况分成两个单独的子类,并讨论了几个易于处理的公式。最后,我们通过金融行业内生随机性随机程序的真实示例来说明污染结果。我们根据可行性集是固定的还是依赖于决策的,将各种情况分成两个单独的子类,并讨论了几个易于处理的公式。最后,我们通过金融行业内生随机性随机程序的真实示例来说明污染结果。

更新日期:2022-07-20
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