Species distribution models (SDMs) are often used during the planning stage of reintroduction programmes to model species' occurrence with the aim of selecting potential release sites. However, for many endangered species, only a low number of records are available, leading to models with low accuracy. When planning reintroductions for rare species, an alternative approach may be to model surrogate species that are more abundant or easier to locate. Here, we modelled the distribution of white gum (Eucalyptus viminalis), the preferred food tree of the forty-spotted pardalote (Pardalotus quadragintus), a rare songbird for which reintroduction has been proposed. Using boosted regression trees, we modelled white gum distribution under current and future climate conditions with the aim of identifying areas of high probability of occurrence that later can be used to plan on ground habitat assessments for reintroductions. Our model show areas with high probability of white gum occurrence outside its currently mapped distribution, indicating that there may be opportunities for reintroduction of pardalotes beyond their current range. Predictions of future climate scenarios showed climate space shifts, not only with some decrease but also with substantial increase in the probability of suitability for occurrence under some scenarios. Our spatial predictions for white gum may be used to design a survey to ground-truth our model and undertake a comprehensive habitat assessment for other habitat features forty-spotted pardalotes need to persist. The approach used in our study may be used for other highly specialized species, not only in the context of reintroduction planning but also in the general management of data-poor specialist species that depend on a more common resource.

中文翻译：

---

对关键栖息地特征的分布进行建模，以指导未来对濒临灭绝的专业鸣禽的地面栖息地评估

物种分布模型 (SDM) 通常在重新引入计划的规划阶段用于模拟物种的发生，目的是选择潜在的释放地点。然而，对于许多濒临灭绝的物种，只有很少的记录可用，导致模型的准确性低。在计划重新引入稀有物种时，另一种方法可能是模拟更丰富或更容易定位的替代物种。在这里，我们模拟了白胶 ( Eucalyptus viminalis ) 的分布，它是四十斑鹦鹉 ( Pardalotus quadragintus ) 的首选食物树)，一种已提议重新引入的稀有鸣禽。使用增强回归树，我们模拟了当前和未来气候条件下的白胶分布，目的是确定高发生概率的区域，这些区域以后可用于规划重新引入的地面栖息地评估。我们的模型显示了在其当前映射分布之外出现白胶的可能性很高的区域，表明可能有机会在其当前范围之外重新引入 pardalotes。对未来气候情景的预测表明，气候空间发生了变化，在某些情景下，不仅发生了一定程度的下降，而且出现了适宜发生的概率大幅增加。我们对白口香糖的空间预测可用于设计一项调查以验证我们的模型，并对其他栖息地特征进行全面的栖息地评估 40 点 pardalotes 需要持续存在。我们研究中使用的方法可用于其他高度专业化的物种，不仅在重新引入计划的背景下，而且在依赖更常见资源的数据匮乏的专业物种的一般管理中。