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Estimation of the combined effects of ageing and seasonality on mortality risk: An application to Spain
The Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A (Statistics in Society) ( IF 2 ) Pub Date : 2022-07-11 , DOI: 10.1111/rssa.12871
Jose M. Pavía 1 , Josep Lledó 1
Affiliation  

Table 1 in the paper should be replaced by the Table 1 of this note.

TABLE 1. Estimates of Spanish seasonal-ageing indexes for age 0 (upper panels) and age 65 (lower panels)
Men Women
0 Years Winter Spring Summer Autumn Ageing 0 Years Winter Spring Summer Autumn Ageing
4Q 0.16525 0.16224 0.15422 0.12849 0.1565 4Q 0.14603 0.14943 0.13896 0.18633 0.1612
3Q 0.21577 0.20080 0.18469 0.24380 0.2130 3Q 0.24587 0.26166 0.20507 0.24268 0.2417
2Q 0.41528 0.36050 0.32553 0.49794 0.4029 2Q 0.52447 0.35342 0.30996 0.32502 0.3793
1Q 3.21199 3.04276 3.32170 3.36904 3.2276 1Q 3.10180 3.33069 3.15894 3.31968 3.2178
Seasonal 1.0036 0.9464 0.9979 1.0520 Seasonal 1.0050 1.0289 0.9535 1.0126
Men Women
65 Years Winter Spring Summer Autumn Ageing 65 Years Winter Spring Summer Autumn Ageing
4Q 1.21514 0.99449 0.89728 0.99813 1.0289 4Q 1.24294 0.98332 0.88593 1.01518 1.0314
3Q 1.14017 0.91890 0.93600 1.04587 1.0087 3Q 1.12903 0.90705 0.95521 1.05518 1.0068
2Q 1.04464 0.94403 0.95957 0.96129 0.9756 2Q 1.03826 0.93467 0.97516 0.95534 0.9765
1Q 1.10544 0.99795 0.91769 0.92340 0.9869 1Q 1.10428 0.99084 0.92135 0.90628 0.9854
Seasonal 1.1290 0.9621 0.9248 0.9841 Seasonal 1.1798 0.9602 0.9168 0.9432

Table 2 in the paper should be replaced by the Table 2 of this note.

TABLE 2. Premium to be paid for a quarter-term life insurance of 100,000€ for a man (woman) at age 65
Fractional age assumption Season of birth of holder – SAI adjusted table
Ageing UDD Constant μx Balducci Winter Spring Summer Autumn
1Q 181.36€ (80.57€) 181.86€(80.67€) 182.35€ (80.76€) 201.01€ (89.07€) 181.48€ (79.93€) 166.90€ (74.32€) 167.94€ (73.11€)
2Q 181.36€(80.57€) 181.52€ (80.6€) 181.69€ (80.63€) 171.34€ (75.33€) 174.19€ (78.60€) 174.53€ (77.01€) 189.65€ (83.69€)
3Q 181.36€ (80.57€) 181.19€ (80.54€) 181.03€ (80.50€) 169.59€ (76.93€) 189.51€ (84.98€) 206.61€ (90.93€) 166.52€ (73.06€)
4Q 181.36€ (80.57€) 180.87€ (80.47€) 180.37€ (80.37€) 180.53€ (81.69€) 218.83€ (100.01€) 179.86€ (79.13€) 162.33€ (71.30€)
Total 725.44€ (322.27€) 725.44€ (322.27€) 725.44€ (322.27€) 722.47€ (323.02€) 764.92€ (343.51€) 727.90€ (321.39€) 686.44€(301.16€)

Sentence

‘For instance, taking the values q65PASEM=◂#▸0.00725439 and m65PASEM=◂#▸0.00728081 obtained from the PASEM2019 tables and the SAI ◂◽:▸γ˜1,3(65)=◂#▸0.91200 from Table 1, we have that ◂=▸31◂◽.▸m˜65=m65·◂◽:▸γ˜1,3(65)=◂#▸0.006640099 for a male policyholder with completed age 65 and, from this, that the probability of dying for this policyholder during summer when aged between 65 and 65.25 is ◂=▸0.25◂◽:▸q˜65(3)=◂+▸31◂◽.▸m˜65/(4+◂⋅▸0.5·31◂◽.▸m˜65)=◂#▸0.00165864’.

Should be replaced by sentence

‘For instance, taking the values q65PASEM=◂#▸0.00725439 and m65PASEM=◂#▸0.00728081 obtained from the PASEM2019 tables and the SAI ◂◽:▸γ˜1,3(65)=◂#▸0.91131 from Table 1, we have that ◂=▸31◂◽.▸m˜65=m65·◂◽:▸γ˜1,3(65)=◂#▸0.0066351 for a male policyholder with completed age 65 and, from this, that the probability of dying for this policyholder during summer when aged between 65 and 65.25 is ◂=▸0.25◂◽:▸q˜65(3)=◂+▸31◂◽.▸m˜65/(4+◂⋅▸0.5·31◂◽.▸m˜65)=◂#▸0.00165740’.

Sentence

‘However, we find differences in SAI premiums as large as 27.3% (27.1%) for women (men), depending on the season of birth of the holder’

Should be replaced by sentence

‘However, we find differences in SAI premiums as large as 21.5% (24.3%) for women (men), depending on the season of birth of the holder’.

Sentence

‘we can see that C1 would earn, on average, 6.68€ per policyholder whereas C2 would lose, on average, 3.33€ per policyholder’

Should be replaced by sentence

‘we can see that C1 would earn, on average, 20.59€ per policyholder whereas C2 would lose, on average, 6.80€ per policyholder’.

Sentence

‘the aggregate risk-surpluses for C1 and C2 would be 383,137€ and -335,822€, respectively’

Should be replaced by sentence

‘the aggregate risk-surpluses for C1 and C2 would be 1,159,116€ and -1,117,721€, respectively’.

Sentence

‘Under these conditions, for example, the aggregation of life expectancies during a year of a group of 101 men each one with a different age between 0 and 100 years old living the whole year in summer would be 2.38 years higher than the corresponding aggregation for a similar group of men living the whole year in winter’

Should be replaced by

‘Under these conditions, for example, the aggregation of life expectancies during a year of a group of 101 men each one with a different age between 0 and 100 years old living the whole year in summer would be 2.16 years higher than the corresponding aggregation for a similar group of men living the whole year in winter’.

Sentence

‘This contrasts with the difference in life expectancy of a man born in summer versus one born in winter, which is 0.30 years’.

Should be replaced by sentence

‘This contrasts with the difference in life expectancy of a man born in summer versus one born in winter, which is almost equal’.



中文翻译:

估计老龄化和季节性对死亡风险的综合影响:在西班牙的应用

论文中的表 1 应替换为本说明的表 1。

表 1.西班牙 0 岁(上图)和 65 岁(下图)的季节性老龄化指数估计
男士 女性
0 年 冬天 春天 夏天 秋天 老化 0 年 冬天 春天 夏天 秋天 老化
4Q 0.16525 0.16224 0.15422 0.12849 0.1565 4Q 0.14603 0.14943 0.13896 0.18633 0.1612
3Q 0.21577 0.20080 0.18469 0.24380 0.2130 3Q 0.24587 0.26166 0.20507 0.24268 0.2417
2Q 0.41528 0.36050 0.32553 0.49794 0.4029 2Q 0.52447 0.35342 0.30996 0.32502 0.3793
1Q 3.21199 3.04276 3.32170 3.36904 3.2276 1Q 3.10180 3.33069 3.15894 3.31968 3.2178
季节性 1.0036 0.9464 0.9979 1.0520 季节性 1.0050 1.0289 0.9535 1.0126
男士 女性
65年 冬天 春天 夏天 秋天 老化 65年 冬天 春天 夏天 秋天 老化
4Q 1.21514 0.99449 0.89728 0.99813 1.0289 4Q 1.24294 0.98332 0.88593 1.01518 1.0314
3Q 1.14017 0.91890 0.93600 1.04587 1.0087 3Q 1.12903 0.90705 0.95521 1.05518 1.0068
2Q 1.04464 0.94403 0.95957 0.96129 0.9756 2Q 1.03826 0.93467 0.97516 0.95534 0.9765
1Q 1.10544 0.99795 0.91769 0.92340 0.9869 1Q 1.10428 0.99084 0.92135 0.90628 0.9854
季节性 1.1290 0.9621 0.9248 0.9841 季节性 1.1798 0.9602 0.9168 0.9432

论文中的表 2 应替换为本说明的表 2。

表 2.男性(女性)在 65 岁时为 100,000 欧元的季度人寿保险支付的保费
分数年龄假设 持有人出生季节-SAI调整表
老化 UDD 持续的μX 巴尔杜奇 冬天 春天 夏天 秋天
1Q 181.36 欧元 (80.57 欧元) 181.86 欧元(80.67 欧元) 182.35 欧元 (80.76 欧元) 201.01 欧元 (89.07 欧元) 181.48 欧元(79.93 欧元) 166.90 欧元(74.32 欧元) 167.94 欧元 (73.11 欧元)
2Q 181.36 欧元(80.57 欧元) 181.52 欧元(80.6 欧元) 181.69 欧元 (80.63 欧元) 171.34 欧元 (75.33 欧元) 174.19 欧元(78.60 欧元) 174.53 欧元 (77.01 欧元) 189.65 欧元 (83.69 欧元)
3Q 181.36 欧元 (80.57 欧元) 181.19 欧元(80.54 欧元) 181.03 欧元(80.50 欧元) 169.59 欧元 (76.93 欧元) 189.51 欧元(84.98 欧元) 206.61 欧元(90.93 欧元) 166.52 欧元 (73.06 欧元)
4Q 181.36 欧元 (80.57 欧元) 180.87 欧元 (80.47 欧元) 180.37 欧元 (80.37 欧元) 180.53 欧元(81.69 欧元) 218.83 欧元 (100.01 欧元) 179.86 欧元 (79.13 欧元) 162.33 欧元(71.30 欧元)
全部的 725.44 欧元 (322.27 欧元) 725.44 欧元 (322.27 欧元) 725.44 欧元 (322.27 欧元) 722.47 欧元 (323.02 欧元) 764.92 欧元 (343.51 欧元) 727.90 欧元 (321.39 欧元) 686.44 欧元(301.16 欧元)

句子

'例如,取值q65帕塞姆=◂#▸0.0072543965帕塞姆=◂#▸0.00728081从 PASEM2019 表和 SAI 获得◂◽:▸γ~1个,3个(65)=◂#▸0.91200从表 1 中,我们有◂=▸3个1个◂◽.▸~65=65·◂◽:▸γ~1个,3个(65)=◂#▸0.006640099对于一个年满 65 岁的男性保单持有人,据此,该保单持有人在夏季年龄介于6565.25◂=▸0.25◂◽:▸q~65(3个)=◂+▸3个1个◂◽.▸~65/(4个+◂⋅▸0.5·3个1个◂◽.▸~65)=◂#▸0.00165864'.

应该换成一句话

'例如,取值q65帕塞姆=◂#▸0.0072543965帕塞姆=◂#▸0.00728081从 PASEM2019 表和 SAI 获得◂◽:▸γ~1个,3个(65)=◂#▸0.91131从表 1 中,我们有◂=▸3个1个◂◽.▸~65=65·◂◽:▸γ~1个,3个(65)=◂#▸0.0066351对于一个年满 65 岁的男性保单持有人,据此,该保单持有人在夏季年龄介于6565.25◂=▸0.25◂◽:▸q~65(3个)=◂+▸3个1个◂◽.▸~65/(4个+◂⋅▸0.5·3个1个◂◽.▸~65)=◂#▸0.00165740'.

句子

“但是,我们发现女性(男性)的 SAI 保费差异高达 27.3%(27.1%),这取决于持有人的出生季节”

应该换成一句话

“但是,我们发现女性(男性)的 SAI 保费差异高达 21.5%(24.3%),这取决于持有人的出生季节”。

句子

“我们可以看到,C1 平均每个保单持有人将赚取 6.68 欧元,而 C2 平均每个保单持有人将损失 3.33 欧元”

应该换成一句话

“我们可以看到,C1 平均每个保单持有人将赚取 20.59 欧元,而 C2 平均每个保单持有人将损失 6.80 欧元”。

句子

“C1 和 C2 的总风险盈余分别为 383,137 欧元和 -335,822 欧元”

应该换成一句话

“C1 和 C2 的总风险盈余分别为 1,159,116 欧元和 -1,117,721 欧元”。

句子

“在这些条件下,例如,一组 101 名年龄在 0 到 100 岁之间的男性在一年中的预期寿命总和全年都在夏季生活,这将比相应的总和高 2.38 岁一群类似的人全年都生活在冬天”

应替换为

“在这些条件下,例如,一组 101 名年龄在 0 到 100 岁之间的男性在一年中的预期寿命总和全年都在夏季生活,这将比相应的总和高 2.16 岁一群类似的人全年都生活在冬天”。

句子

“这与夏季出生的男性与冬季出生的男性的预期寿命差异形成鲜明对比,后者为 0.30 岁”。

应该换成一句话

“这与夏季出生的男性与冬季出生的男性的预期寿命差异形成鲜明对比,后者几乎相等”。

更新日期:2022-07-11
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