The Western Tragopan Tragopan melanocephalus is endemic to the Western Himalayas and currently listed as ‘Vulnerable’ on the IUCN Red List which also emphasizes a data deficiency regarding its distribution and population size. With this study we provide new data from the Palas Valley, northern Pakistan and deliver a range wide estimate of the species current, past, and future potential distribution as derived from environmental niche models. In the Palas Valley, Western Tragopans occupied different summer habitats on north-facing slopes and winter habitats on south-facing slopes. A quantitative estimate of local populations in six side valleys was inferred from individual call-count surveys during two breeding seasons (April and May 2017, 2018) and disturbance factors were evaluated from information of local people provided in questionnaires. Generalized-linear models (GLMs) showed a significant effect of disturbance factors on Western Tragopans, i.e. local abundances decreased with increasing disturbance from livestock, collectors and hunters visiting the area. This effect was visible across survey years and at both, south- as well as north-facing slopes. While the known distributional range of the Western Tragopan is small and fragmented, our niche models inferred climatically suitable space between Himachal Pradesh and northwestern Pakistan to be more continuous. Given the species sensitivity to disturbance, these findings indicate that the observed fragmentation of the current range might also be attributed to habitat transformation or anthropogenic disturbance rather than climatic suitability. During the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) T. melanocephalus was probably restricted to small forest refugia, whereas projections onto eleven future climate simulations were inconclusive with the majority suggesting that climatically suitable space for T. melanocephalus will likely expand in response to anthropogenic climate change. In conclusion, we recommend that future conservation measures should be planned with regard to the species’ sensitivity to anthropogenic disturbances.

西部角雉Tragopan melanocephalus是喜马拉雅山西部的特有种，目前在国际自然保护联盟红色名录中被列为“易危”物种，该名录还强调了有关其分布和种群规模的数据缺乏。通过这项研究，我们提供了来自巴基斯坦北部帕拉斯山谷的新数据，并根据环境生态位模型对物种当前、过去和未来的潜在分布进行了广泛的估计。在帕拉斯山谷，西角雉在朝北的山坡上占据着不同的夏季栖息地，在朝南的山坡上占据着不同的冬季栖息地。通过两个繁殖季节（2017年4月和2018年5月）的个体呼叫计数调查推断了六个侧谷的当地种群数量，并根据问卷中提供的当地人信息评估了干扰因素。广义线性模型（GLM）显示干扰因素对西部角雉有显着影响，即当地的丰度随着牲畜、采集者和猎人到访该地区的干扰的增加而减少。这种影响在整个调查年份以及朝南和朝北的斜坡上都很明显。虽然已知的西角雉分布范围较小且分散，但我们的生态位模型推断喜马偕尔邦和巴基斯坦西北部之间的气候适宜空间更加连续。考虑到物种对干扰的敏感性，这些发现表明，观察到的当前范围的破碎化也可能归因于栖息地转变或人为干扰，而不是气候适宜性。末次盛冰期（LGM）期间 随着牲畜、采集者和猎人到访该地区的干扰不断增加，当地的丰度有所下降。这种影响在整个调查年份以及朝南和朝北的斜坡上都很明显。虽然已知的西角雉分布范围较小且分散，但我们的生态位模型推断喜马偕尔邦和巴基斯坦西北部之间的气候适宜空间更加连续。考虑到物种对干扰的敏感性，这些发现表明，观察到的当前范围的破碎化也可能归因于栖息地转变或人为干扰，而不是气候适宜性。末次盛冰期（LGM）期间 随着牲畜、采集者和猎人到访该地区的干扰不断增加，当地的丰度有所下降。这种影响在整个调查年份以及朝南和朝北的斜坡上都很明显。虽然已知的西角雉分布范围较小且分散，但我们的生态位模型推断喜马偕尔邦和巴基斯坦西北部之间的气候适宜空间更加连续。考虑到物种对干扰的敏感性，这些发现表明，观察到的当前范围的破碎化也可能归因于栖息地转变或人为干扰，而不是气候适宜性。末次盛冰期（LGM）期间 虽然已知的西角雉分布范围较小且分散，但我们的生态位模型推断喜马偕尔邦和巴基斯坦西北部之间的气候适宜空间更加连续。考虑到物种对干扰的敏感性，这些发现表明，观察到的当前范围的破碎化也可能归因于栖息地转变或人为干扰，而不是气候适宜性。末次盛冰期（LGM）期间 虽然已知的西角雉分布范围较小且分散，但我们的生态位模型推断喜马偕尔邦和巴基斯坦西北部之间的气候适宜空间更加连续。考虑到物种对干扰的敏感性，这些发现表明，观察到的当前范围的破碎化也可能归因于栖息地转变或人为干扰，而不是气候适宜性。末次盛冰期（LGM）期间 这些发现表明，观察到的当前范围的破碎化也可能归因于生境转变或人为干扰，而不是气候适宜性。末次盛冰期（LGM）期间 这些发现表明，观察到的当前范围的破碎化也可能归因于生境转变或人为干扰，而不是气候适宜性。末次盛冰期（LGM）期间T. melanocephalus可能仅限于小型森林保护区，而对 11 个未来气候模拟的预测尚无定论，大多数都表明，适合T. melanocephalus的气候空间可能会因人为气候变化而扩大。总之，我们建议未来的保护措施应考虑到该物种对人为干扰的敏感性。