Migration is a widely used adaptation strategy to climate change impacts. Yet resource constraints caused by such impacts may limit the ability to migrate, thereby leading to immobility. Here we provide a quantitative, global analysis of reduced international mobility due to resource deprivation caused by climate change. We incorporate both migration dynamics and within-region income distributions in an integrated assessment model. We show that climate change induces decreases in emigration of lowest-income levels by over 10% in 2100 for medium development and climate scenarios compared with no climate change and by up to 35% for more pessimistic scenarios including catastrophic damages. This effect would leave resource-constrained populations extremely vulnerable to both subsequent climate change impacts and increased poverty.

移民是一种广泛使用的适应气候变化影响的策略。然而，此类影响造成的资源限制可能会限制迁移能力，从而导致无法流动。在这里，我们对气候变化导致的资源匮乏导致的国际流动性降低进行了定量的全球分析。我们将迁移动态和区域内收入分配纳入综合评估模型。我们表明，与没有气候变化相比，气候变化导致 2100 年中等发展和气候情景下最低收入水平的移民减少 10% 以上，在包括灾难性损害在内的更悲观情景下减少高达 35%。这种影响将使资源受限的人口极易受到随后的气候变化影响和贫困加剧的影响。