Terrestrial ecosystems are essential for food and water security and CO₂ uptake. Ecosystem function is dependent on the availability of soil moisture, yet it is unclear how climate change will alter soil moisture limitation on vegetation. Here we use an ecosystem index that distinguishes energy and water limitations in Earth system model simulations to show a widespread regime shift from energy to water limitation between 1980 and 2100. This shift is found in both space and time. While this is mainly related to a reduction in energy-limited regions associated with increasing surface net radiation, the largest shift towards water limitation is found in regions where net radiation increases are accompanied by soil moisture decreases. We therefore demonstrate a widespread regime shift in ecosystem function that is stronger than implied by individual trends in net radiation, soil moisture and terrestrial evaporation, with important implications for future ecosystem services.

陆地生态系统对于粮食和水安全以及 CO _{2至关重要}摄取。生态系统功能取决于土壤水分的可用性，但尚不清楚气候变化将如何改变土壤水分对植被的限制。在这里，我们使用生态系统指数来区分地球系统模型模拟中的能源和水资源限制，以显示 1980 年至 2100 年间从能源限制到水资源限制的广泛制度转变。这种转变在空间和时间上都存在。虽然这主要与与增加地表净辐射相关的能量受限区域的减少有关，但在净辐射增加伴随土壤水分减少的区域发现了最大的限水变化。因此，我们证明了生态系统功能的广泛体制转变，这比净辐射、土壤水分和陆地蒸发的个别趋势所暗示的要强，