This paper contributes to the debate on Europe's modern economic growth using the statistical concept of long-range dependence. Different regimes, defined as periods between two successive endogenously estimated structural shocks, matched episodes of pandemics and war. The most persistent shocks occurred at the time of the Black Death and the twentieth century's world wars. Our findings confirm that the Black Death often resulted in higher income levels but reject the view of a uniform long-term response to the Plague. In fact, we find a negative impact on incomes in non-Malthusian economies. In the North Sea Area (Britain and the Netherlands), the Plague was followed by positive trend growth in output per capita and population, heralding the onset of modern economic growth and the Great Divergence in Eurasia.

本文使用长期依赖的统计概念，为关于欧洲现代经济增长的辩论做出了贡献。不同的制度，定义为两次连续的内生性估计结构性冲击之间的时期，与流行病和战争的发作相匹配。最持久的冲击发生在黑死病和 20 世纪的世界大战期间。我们的研究结果证实，黑死病通常会带来更高的收入水平，但拒绝对瘟疫做出统一的长期反应的观点。事实上，我们发现对非马尔萨斯经济体的收入有负面影响。在北海地区（英国和荷兰），瘟疫之后人均产出和人口呈正趋势增长，预示着现代经济增长和欧亚大陆大分流的开始。