Studies with relatively large sample size as well as long-term follow-up focusing on adult craniopharyngioma (CP) patients are still lacking. We attempted to identify independent prognostic factors and establish a nomogram model to estimate survival rates for adult CP patients. The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database was used to obtain data on patients with CP. Univariable and multivariable Cox analyses were utilized to identify the prognostic factors of adult CP patients. A survival prediction model was constructed and its predictive performance was also assessed. A total of 991 patients (695 in training group and 296 in validation group) were eligible for final inclusion. Multivariate Cox analysis presented that age at diagnosis, marital status, race, tumor size, and surgery type were statistically significant prognostic factors for overall survival (all P < .05). A graphical predicting nomogram model was developed to calculate the predicted patients' survival probabilities at 1, 2, 5, and 10 years. The concordance indexes were 0.708 ± 0.019 and 0.750 ± 0.025 for the training and validation samples, respectively, demonstrating favorable discrimination abilities. Similarly, the time-dependent area under curve also showed overall satisfactory discrimination ability. Favorable consistencies between the predicted and actual survival were presented according to the calibration curves. An easy-to-use nomogram, being proven to be with reliable discrimination ability and accuracy, was established to help predict overall survival for adult patients with CP using the identified significant prognostic factors.

中文翻译：

---

成年颅咽管瘤患者总生存期的危险因素和预测列线图：一项基于 SEER 人群的研究。

目前仍缺乏样本量较大且针对成人颅咽管瘤（CP）患者进行长期随访的研究。我们试图确定独立的预后因素并建立列线图模型来估计成人 CP 患者的生存率。监测、流行病学和最终结果数据库用于获取 CP 患者的数据。利用单变量和多变量 Cox 分析来确定成人 CP 患者的预后因素。构建了生存预测模型并评估了其预测性能。共有 991 名患者（训练组 695 名和验证组 296 名）符合最终入选条件。多变量 Cox 分析显示诊断时的年龄、婚姻状况、种族、肿瘤大小、和手术类型是总生存期的具有统计学意义的预后因素（所有 P < .05）。开发了图形预测列线图模型来计算预测患者在 1、2、5 和 10 年的生存概率。训练样本和验证样本的一致性指数分别为 0.708 ± 0.019 和 0.750 ± 0.025，显示出良好的辨别能力。同样，随时间变化的曲线下面积也表现出总体上令人满意的辨别能力。根据校准曲线，预测生存率和实际生存率之间存在良好的一致性。建立了一个易于使用的列线图，被证明具有可靠的辨别能力和准确性，以帮助使用已确定的重要预后因素预测成年 CP 患者的总体生存率。