Although projects are regularly exposed to disruptive events, the literature lacks an effective measurement system for project resilience. This gap presents challenges for decision makers because of the consequent lack of quantitative information about the level of resilience and its impact on project performance throughout a project's life. We argue that managers can be supported by a priori information about past similar projects as well as new data that evolve during disruption and recovery stages to enhance decision making by key project leaders, such as funders when approving new projects, project managers when developing the detailed plan, and project owners when approving corrective actions following a major disruption. Therefore, this paper develops a mathematical model to measure the level of project resilience by predicting disruption and recovery profiles based on past similar completed projects, as well as actual events unique to the project at hand. We illustrate and validate the model based on a portfolio of 43 major projects that faced disruptions from various sources. Our results provide the first empirical evidence to measure the impact of project resilience on the disruption and recovery behavior of real-life projects. The outputs of this research can be used as a decision support system that enables managers to make informed decisions throughout a project's life.

尽管项目经常受到破坏性事件的影响，但文献缺乏有效的项目弹性测量系统。这一差距给决策者带来了挑战，因为缺乏关于弹性水平及其在项目生命周期中对项目绩效的影响的定量信息。我们认为管理者可以得到关于过去类似项目的先验信息以及在中断和恢复阶段演变的新数据的支持，以增强关键项目领导者的决策，例如批准新项目时的资助者，开发详细项目时的项目经理计划和项目所有者在重大中断后批准纠正措施时。所以，本文开发了一个数学模型，通过根据过去类似的已完成项目以及手头项目特有的实际事件预测中断和恢复情况，来衡量项目的弹性水平。我们基于 43 个主要项目的组合来说明和验证该模型，这些项目面临来自各种来源的干扰。我们的结果提供了第一个经验证据来衡量项目弹性对现实项目中断和恢复行为的影响。这项研究的成果可以用作决策支持系统，使管理人员能够在项目的整个生命周期内做出明智的决策。我们基于 43 个主要项目的组合来说明和验证该模型，这些项目面临来自各种来源的干扰。我们的结果提供了第一个经验证据来衡量项目弹性对现实项目中断和恢复行为的影响。这项研究的成果可以用作决策支持系统，使管理人员能够在项目的整个生命周期内做出明智的决策。我们基于 43 个主要项目的组合来说明和验证该模型，这些项目面临来自各种来源的干扰。我们的结果提供了第一个经验证据来衡量项目弹性对现实项目中断和恢复行为的影响。这项研究的成果可以用作决策支持系统，使管理人员能够在项目的整个生命周期内做出明智的决策。