Are audiovisual over the top (OTT) services in Latin America substitutes for the traditional Pay TV services (cable or satellite), complementary or independent? To respond to this question, we develop a simple theoretical model based on a CES utility function and estimate simultaneously, using non-linear least squares, demand functions for both audiovisual services. Our results, based on original database covering 17 Latin American countries from 2011 to 2020, suggest no substitution of Pay TV for OTT. However, during the more recent period (2015–2020), we find evidence of gross substitution (i.e., similar enough, although not completely equivalent for consumers) between these audiovisual services. This confirms, although only partially, the existence of the so-called cord-cutting and cord-saving phenomena, due to the expansion of fast internet and the richer OTT offers, and their relatively lower prices. These results suggest regulators should include OTT services in their scope and produce in-depth analysis on the country level to update and optimize regulations, as well as implement regulatory sandboxes to advance towards smart regulation, as shown in the financial industry.

拉丁美洲的顶级视听 (OTT) 服务是替代传统付费电视服务（有线或卫星），是互补的还是独立的？为了回答这个问题，我们开发了一个基于 CES 效用函数的简单理论模型，并使用非线性最小二乘法同时估计两种视听服务的需求函数。我们的结果基于 2011 年至 2020 年涵盖 17 个拉丁美洲国家的原始数据库，表明OTT没有替代付费电视。然而，在最近的时期（2015-2020 年），我们发现这些视听服务之间存在总替代的证据（即足够相似，但对消费者而言并不完全等同）。这虽然只是部分地证实了所谓的由于快速互联网的扩展和更丰富的 OTT 服务以及相对较低的价格，出现了断线和省线现象。这些结果表明，监管机构应将 OTT 服务纳入其范围，并在国家层面进行深入分析以更新和优化监管，并实施监管沙箱以推进智能监管，如金融行业所示。