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Mapping storm spatial profiles for flood impact assessments
Advances in Water Resources ( IF 4.7 ) Pub Date : 2022-06-25 , DOI: 10.1016/j.advwatres.2022.104258
Nadav Peleg , Nikolina Ban , Michael J. Gibson , Albert S. Chen , Athanasios Paschalis , Paolo Burlando , João P. Leitão

Synthetic design storms are often used to plan new drainage systems or assess flood impacts on infrastructure. To simulate extreme rainfall events under climate change, design storms can be modified to match a different return frequency of extreme rainfall events as well as a modified temporal distribution of rainfall intensities. However, the same magnitude of change to the rainfall intensities is often applied in space. Several hydrological applications are limited by this. Climate change impacts on urban pluvial floods, for example, require the use of 2D design storms (rainfall fields) at sub-kilometer and sub-hourly scales. Recent kilometer scale climate models, also known as convection-permitting climate models (CPM), provide rainfall outputs at a high spatial resolution, although rainfall simulations are still restricted to a limited number of climate scenarios and time periods. We nevertheless explored the potential use of rainfall data obtained from these models for hydrological flood impact studies by introducing a method of spatial quantile mapping (SQM). To demonstrate the new methodology, we extracted high-resolution rainfall simulations from a CPM for four domains representing different urban areas in Switzerland. Extreme storms that are plausible under the present climate conditions were simulated with a 2D stochastic rainfall model. Based on the CPM-informed stochastically generated rainfall fields, we modified the design storms to fit the future climate scenario using three different methods: the SQM, a uniform quantile mapping, and a uniform adjustment based on a rainfall–temperature relationship. Throughout all storms, the temporal distribution of rainfall was the same. Using a flood model, we assessed the impact of different rainfall adjustment methods on urban flooding. Significant differences were found in the flood water depths and areas between the three methods. In general, the SQM method results in a higher flood impact than the storms that were modified otherwise. The results suggest that spatial storm profiles may need to be re-adjusted when assessing flood impacts.



中文翻译:

为洪水影响评估绘制风暴空间剖面图

综合设计风暴通常用于规划新的排水系统或评估洪水对基础设施的影响。为了模拟气候变化下的极端降雨事件,可以修改设计风暴以匹配极端降雨事件的不同返回频率以及降雨强度的修改时间分布。然而,相同幅度的降雨强度变化经常应用在空间中。一些水文应用受此限制。例如,气候变化对城市雨洪的影响需要在亚公里和亚小时尺度上使用二维设计风暴(降雨场)。最近的千米尺度气候模型,也称为允许对流的气候模型 (CPM),以高空间分辨率提供降雨输出,尽管降雨模拟仍仅限于有限数量的气候情景和时间段。然而,我们通过引入空间分位数映射 (SQM) 方法探索了从这些模型中获得的降雨数据在水文洪水影响研究中的潜在用途。为了演示新方法,我们从 CPM 中提取了代表瑞士不同城市区域的四个域的高分辨率降雨模拟。在当前气候条件下可能出现的极端风暴是用二维随机降雨模型模拟的。基于 CPM 通知的随机生成的降雨场,我们使用三种不同的方法修改设计风暴以适应未来的气候情景:SQM、统一分位数映射和基于降雨-温度关系的统一调整。在所有风暴中,降雨的时间分布是相同的。使用洪水模型,我们评估了不同降雨调整方法对城市洪水的影响。三种方法的洪水深度和面积存在显着差异。一般来说,SQM 方法导致的洪水影响比其他方式修改的风暴更大。结果表明,在评估洪水影响时,可能需要重新调整空间风暴剖面。SQM 方法导致的洪水影响比以其他方式修改的风暴更高。结果表明,在评估洪水影响时,可能需要重新调整空间风暴剖面。SQM 方法导致的洪水影响比以其他方式修改的风暴更高。结果表明,在评估洪水影响时,可能需要重新调整空间风暴剖面。

更新日期:2022-06-25
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