The initial European Union bioeconomy policies have been criticized for their overriding economic emphasis at the cost of social and environmental sustainability. The updated policy aims to respond to more ambitious sustainability goals but fails to do so coherently. In this article, we examine the dynamics of bioeconomy expectations. We analyze the development of bioeconomy policy as a technoscientific imaginary by dissecting the changed expectations, their underlying tensions, and the directions to which their combinations guide policymaking. We find that the revised expectations are contradictory and culminate in two key tensions regarding the bioeconomy’s expected scale and socioeconomic paradigm. To enable assessment of the outcomes of conflicting expectations, we examine images of potential futures that rise up from combinations of the key tensions. For this, we use a framework of the four generic scenario narratives. The analysis provides a tool for reflection for assessing the directions and priorities of evolving bioeconomy discourse and policy.

中文翻译：

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生物经济中的预期动态——希望、幻灭和相互冲突的未来

最初的欧盟生物经济政策因其以牺牲社会和环境可持续性为代价的压倒一切的经济重点而受到批评。更新后的政策旨在响应更雄心勃勃的可持续发展目标，但未能连贯一致。在本文中，我们研究了生物经济预期的动态。我们通过剖析变化的期望、它们的潜在张力以及它们的组合指导决策的方向，将生物经济政策的发展作为一种技术科学的想象来分析。我们发现修订后的预期是矛盾的，并最终导致有关生物经济的预期规模和社会经济范式的两个关键紧张局势。为了能够评估相互冲突的期望的结果，我们研究了从主要紧张局势的组合中产生的潜在未来的图像。为此，我们使用了四个通用场景叙述的框架。该分析为评估不断发展的生物经济话语和政策的方向和优先事项提供了一种反思工具。