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Urban dynamics and potential vulnerability of coastal urban areas to sea level rise in the southeastern Levantine Basin
Urban Climate ( IF 6.4 ) Pub Date : 2022-06-18 , DOI: 10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101212
Mohamed A. Abdrabo, Rofida G. Abdelwahab, Mahmoud A. Hassaan

Vulnerability of coastal areas to climate change impacts such as Sea Level Rise (SLR) is largely determined by exposure to coastal hazards and prevailing urban patterns, as different patterns imply varied sensitivity and vulnerability levels. The potential vulnerability of the Nile Delta to SLR impacts is expected to be influenced by projected coastal urban dynamics, which means varied exposure in the future. The paper in hand intends to examine the influence of urban dynamics on potential physical vulnerability to SLR. For this purpose, a four-step methodology was developed and applied, including acquiring remote sensing imageries and spatial data, which was employed for modeling LULC dynamics. Thereafter, current and potential vulnerability to SLR were assessed and changes in urban vulnerability due to LULC dynamics were valued.

In this respect, it was found that urban dynamics would imply more exposure levels of urban centers in the study area to SLR impacts, which will increase their potential vulnerability by 2050 compared to current vulnerability. The value of increased vulnerability due to urban dynamic was estimated to be EGP 302 billion. This highlights the need to integrate climate change in spatial planning processes to reduce potential vulnerabilities and create more resilient urban areas.



中文翻译:

黎凡特盆地东南部沿海城市地区对海平面上升的城市动态和潜在脆弱性

沿海地区对海平面上升 (SLR) 等气候变化影响的脆弱性在很大程度上取决于对沿海灾害的暴露程度和普遍的城市模式,因为不同的模式意味着不同的敏感性和脆弱性水平。尼罗河三角洲对 SLR 影响的潜在脆弱性预计将受到预计的沿海城市动态的影响,这意味着未来的暴露程度不同。本文旨在研究城市动态对 SLR 潜在物理脆弱性的影响。为此,开发并应用了一种四步方法,包括获取遥感图像和空间数据,用于对 LULC 动力学进行建模。此后,评估了当前和潜在的 SLR 脆弱性,并评估了由于 LULC 动态导致的城市脆弱性变化。

在这方面,研究发现城市动态意味着研究区城市中心对 SLR 影响的暴露程度更高,与目前的脆弱性相比,这将增加其到 2050 年的潜在脆弱性。由于城市动态而增加的脆弱性价值估计为 3020 亿埃及镑。这凸显了将气候变化纳入空间规划过程的必要性,以减少潜在的脆弱性并创建更具弹性的城市地区。

更新日期:2022-06-20
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