We examine conspiracy beliefs in the context of misplaced certainty—certainty that is unsubstantiated by one’s own or others’ skepticism. A conspiracy theory held with misplaced certainty may entail, for instance, “knowing” or feeling certain that secret actors are plotting against society yet acknowledging that this claim lacks evidence or is opposed by most other people. Recent work on misplaced certainty suggests that such certainty predicts and results in antisocial outcomes, including fanatical behavior in terms of determined ignorance, aggression, and adherence to extreme groups. As such, introducing the concept of misplaced certainty to theory and research on conspiracy theories may help identify when and why conspiracy theories lead to deleterious behavioral outcomes. (113 words)

我们在错位的确定性的背景下检查阴谋信念——确定性没有被自己或他人的怀疑所证实。例如，以错误的确定性持有的阴谋论可能需要“知道”或确信秘密行动者正在密谋反对社会，但承认这一说法缺乏证据或遭到大多数其他人的反对。最近关于错位确定性的研究表明，这种确定性预测并导致反社会结果，包括在坚定的无知、攻击性和坚持极端群体方面的狂热行为。因此，将错位确定性的概念引入理论和阴谋论研究可能有助于确定阴谋论何时以及为何会导致有害的行为结果。（113 字）