A large body of research has found mixed evidence that people who are quick to dismiss randomness as a potential cause for an event are also more likely to believe conspiracy theories. To clarify the relationship between randomness dismissal and conspiracist ideation, we conducted a high-powered preregistered replication of an influential study in the United States (n = 521) and Switzerland (n = 293), and a meta-analysis of the literature (N = 55 effect sizes). Both our study (0.03 < r's < 0.15) and meta-analysis (r = 0.16) found small, but positive and robust relationships between randomness dismissal and conspiracist ideation. Our replication investigated differences in statistical power, culture, and education as potential explanations for the conflicting findings in the literature. None of these factors could fully account for the mixed findings, although culture had an unexpected moderating role. Our study suggests that the relationship between randomness dismissal and conspiracist ideation is small and contextually sensitive.

大量研究发现混合证据表明，那些迅速将随机性视为事件的潜在原因的人也更有可能相信阴谋论。为了阐明随机解雇与阴谋论之间的关系，我们对美国 ( n  = 521) 和瑞士 ( n  = 293) 的一项有影响力的研究进行了高效的预注册复制，并对文献进行了荟萃分析 ( N  = 55 个效应大小）。我们的研究 (0.03 <  r's  < 0.15) 和荟萃分析 ( r = 0.16）发现随机解雇和阴谋论之间的关系很小，但积极而稳健。我们的复制调查了统计能力、文化和教育方面的差异，作为对文献中相互矛盾的发现的潜在解释。尽管文化具有意想不到的调节作用，但这些因素都不能完全解释混合的结果。我们的研究表明，随机解雇与阴谋论思想之间的关系很小且对上下文敏感。