Abstract

Objective

Using data from n = 194 nation-states, Kleck found that firearm availability was only associated with firearm suicide rates, but not total or non-firearm suicides. He thus concluded that while firearm availability influences how people commit suicide, it does not affect total numbers. However, the study contains numerous logical and methodological issues and is at odds with the evidence base. Therefore, I attempt to reproduce the original results.

Method

I reproduce the original study’s methods: ordinary least squares regression, weighted by the square root of the population, with log-transformed suicide rates and three separate firearm availability measures: global estimates from the Small Arms Survey, proportion of suicides committed with firearms, and a European Union survey of firearm ownership. I also test several methodological variations and include U.S. suicide data.

Results

In contrast to Kleck, global analyses with Small Arms Survey data found a significant and positive association between firearm availability and total suicides, as did U.S. analyses. Analyses with other firearm availability measures comported with the original study, finding no association.

Conclusion

The main result in Kleck failed to reproduce, finding instead a significant association between firearm availability and suicide rates, as did U.S. analyses. While reproductions of Kleck’s other analyses continued to show no association, they were based on unreliable methods. I therefore reject Kleck’s conclusion that that firearm availability does not influence suicide rates.

• Highlights

• Using data global data, I find firearm availability is positively associated with suicide rates.

• I identify serious flaws in the logic and methods of Kleck and an earlier review.

• For transparency, data and code have been archived on a public repository.

中文翻译：

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枪支与自杀率之间的关联：克莱克 (2021) 的复制

摘要

客观的

使用来自194个民族国家的数据 ，克莱克发现枪支的可用性仅与枪支自杀率相关，但与总自杀率或非枪支自杀率无关。因此，他得出的结论是，虽然枪支的可用性会影响人们的自杀方式，但不会影响总数。然而，该研究包含许多逻辑和方法论问题，并且与证据基础不一致。因此，我尝试重现原始结果。

方法

我重现了原始研究的方法：普通最小二乘回归，以人口的平方根加权，采用对数转换的自杀率和三个独立的枪支可用性指标：小型武器调查的全球估计、使用枪支自杀的比例以及欧盟对枪支拥有量的调查。我还测试了几种方法的变化，并纳入了美国的自杀数据。

结果

与克莱克相反，对小型武器调查数据的全球分析发现，枪支供应与总自杀率之间存在显着且正相关的关系，美国的分析也是如此。对其他枪支可用性指标的分析与原始研究一致，没有发现任何关联。

结论

克莱克的主要结果未能重现，而是发现枪支供应与自杀率之间存在显着关联，美国的分析也是如此。虽然克莱克的其他分析的重复结果仍然没有显示出任何关联，但它们是基于不可靠的方法。因此，我拒绝克莱克的结论，即枪支的可用性不会影响自杀率。

• 强调

• 使用全球数据，我发现枪支的可用性与自杀率呈正相关。

• 我发现克莱克和早期评论的逻辑和方法存在严重缺陷。

• 为了透明起见，数据和代码已存档在公共存储库中。