This study aims to open the black box of heterogeneous responses to violent conflicts by focusing on subsidiaries’ operational exposure to violent conflict and their decisions to exit host countries. Drawing on real options theory, we propose a viable approach multinational enterprises can take when they encounter violent conflicts in their operating locations. Our analysis of 3,479 foreign subsidiaries operating in 11 countries over 26 years suggests that the exit decision of any given subsidiary located in a conflict-affected country depends on its operational scope. However, this effect depends on the characteristics of the operations the subsidiary undertakes, specifically, whether the subsidiary conducts natural resource-seeking operations and the degree of operational overlap with the same-parent affiliates.

本研究旨在通过关注子公司对暴力冲突的运营风险及其退出东道国的决定，打开对暴力冲突的异质反应的黑匣子。借鉴实物期权理论，我们提出了一种可行的方法，跨国企业在其经营场所遇到暴力冲突时可以采取的方法。我们对 26 年来在 11 个国家经营的 3,479 家外国子公司的分析表明，位于受冲突影响国家的任何特定子公司的退出决定取决于其经营范围。但是，这种影响取决于子公司所从事业务的特点，具体取决于子公司是否进行自然资源寻求型业务，以及与同一母公司关联企业的业务重叠程度。