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Scaling patterns of human diseases and population size in Colombia
Global Environmental Change ( IF 8.9 ) Pub Date : 2022-06-07 , DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102546
Alejandro Feged-Rivadeneira, Federico Andrade-Rivas, Felipe González-Casabianca, Francisco J. Escobedo

Colombia has had one of the largest numbers of internally displaced populations in the world and in 2016 entered a period of post-conflict. These socio-ecological and geopolitical processes and trends have increased the migration of people towards cities and accordingly are affecting the distribution and occurrence of tropical diseases in its urban and peri-urban areas. Studies have suggested that anthropogenic phenomena such as urbanization scale according to the size of human populations regardless of cultural context. But, other studies show that health epidemics such as malarial and human immunodeficiency virus infections, follow a scale-free distribution in terms of urban population size and density. Here, we explore these relationships and dynamics in a tropical context using statistical analyses and available geospatial data to identify the scale relationships between urban growth processes and disease transmission in Colombia. Our results show that the dynamics of rural populations and certain diseases were characterized by power-laws that are indeed observed in urbanization studies. However, as opposed to these other studies, we found that malaria presented a higher intensity of infection in human settlements with less than 50,000 individuals and in particular for ethnic, indigenous populations. Results indicate that disease and urbanization relationships in Colombia do indeed follow scales; findings that differ from previous epidemiological studies such as those for malarial infection. Additionally, we identified trends showing that malarial infections become endemic in peri-urban areas. This approach using few, but robust and readily available, data is key for managing public health issues and understanding the spatial distribution of environmental impacts in the urbanizing tropics.



中文翻译:

哥伦比亚人类疾病和人口规模的缩放模式

哥伦比亚是世界上国内流离失所人口最多的国家之一,并于 2016 年进入冲突后时期。这些社会生态和地缘政治进程和趋势增加了人们向城市的迁移,因此影响了热带病在城市和城郊地区的分布和发生。研究表明,无论文化背景如何,城市化等人为现象都根据人口规模而定。但是,其他研究表明,疟疾和人类免疫缺陷病毒感染等健康流行病在城市人口规模和密度方面遵循无标度分布。这里,我们使用统计分析和可用的地理空间数据在热带环境中探索这些关系和动态,以确定哥伦比亚城市增长过程和疾病传播之间的规模关系。我们的研究结果表明,农村人口和某些疾病的动态以幂律为特征,这在城市化研究中确实观察到了。然而,与这些其他研究相反,我们发现疟疾在少于 50,000 人的人类住区中表现出更高的感染强度,特别是对于少数民族和土著人口。结果表明,哥伦比亚的疾病和城市化关系确实遵循规模;与以前的流行病学研究(例如疟疾感染的研究)不同的发现。此外,我们确定了显示疟疾感染在城郊地区流行的趋势。这种方法使用少量但可靠且易于获得的数据,是管理公共卫生问题和了解热带城市化环境影响的空间分布的关键。

更新日期:2022-06-09
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