Abstract We exploit locally exogenous variation from the Blitz bombings to quantify the effect of redevelopment frictions and identify agglomeration economies at a micro-geographic scale. Employing rich location and office rental transaction data, we estimate reduced-form analyses and a spatial general equilibrium model. Our analyses demonstrate that more heavily bombed areas exhibit taller buildings today, and that agglomeration elasticities in London are large, approaching 0.2. Counterfactual simulations show that if the Blitz had not occurred, the concomitant reduction in agglomeration economies arising from the loss of higher-density redevelopment would cause London’s present-day gross domestic product to drop by some 10% (or £50 billion).

中文翻译：

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十亿英镑的下跌：伦敦的闪电战和集聚经济

摘要我们利用闪电战爆炸的局部外生变化来量化重建摩擦的影响，并在微观地理尺度上识别集聚经济。利用丰富的位置和办公室租赁交易数据，我们估计了简化形式的分析和空间一般均衡模型。我们的分析表明，如今轰炸更严重的地区建筑更高，伦敦的集聚弹性很大，接近 0.2。反事实模拟表明，如果闪电战没有发生，由于失去更高密度的再开发而导致的集聚经济随之减少，将导致伦敦目前的国内生产总值下降约 10%（或 500 亿英镑）。