Current coastal spatial planning in Sweden uses simple methods to account for how flood risks increase owing to sea level rise. Those methods, however, fail to account for several important aspects of sea level rise, such as: projection uncertainty, emission scenario uncertainty and time dependence. Here, enhanced methods that account for these uncertainties are applied at several locations along the coast. The relative importance of mean sea level rise and extreme events for flood risk is explored for different timeframes. A general conclusion for all locations is that, extreme events dominate the flood risk for planning periods lasting a few decades. For longer planning periods, lasting toward the end of the century, the flood risk is instead dominated by the risk of high sea level rise. It is argued that these findings are important for assessments of future flood risk, and that they should be reflected in coastal spatial planning.

瑞典目前的沿海空间规划使用简单的方法来解释海平面上升导致洪水风险如何增加。然而，这些方法未能考虑海平面上升的几个重要方面，例如：预测不确定性、排放情景不确定性和时间依赖性。在这里，解释这些不确定性的增强方法被应用于沿海的几个位置。探讨了不同时间范围内平均海平面上升和极端事件对洪水风险的相对重要性。所有地点的一般结论是，极端事件在持续数十年的规划期内主导洪水风险。对于更长的规划期，持续到本世纪末，洪水风险主要由海平面上升的风险主导。