The Raise the Wage Act of 2021 (HR 603) would increase the federal minimum wage in five annual steps, from $7.25 to $15 in 2025, with annual increases thereafter indexed to the median wage. The new floor would increase pay for nearly 32 million workers, about 21 percent of the U.S. workforce (Cooper, Mokhiber, & Zipperer, 2021). Nearly one-third of Black workers and one-fourth of Hispanic workers would receive increases. The annual pay increase for year-round full-time workers would average about $3,300 and no full-time worker would earn a poverty wage. These impressive numbers suggest that a $15 federal minimum wage would constitute a bold policy innovation. It would exceed the previous peakminimumwage— which was about $11.50 (in 2019 dollars), reached in the late 1960s, and equal about 80 percent of the median wage in the lowest-wage states. On the other hand, the current federal minimum lies 37 percent below that previous peak, and about 18 percent below its value in 2009, the year of the last federal increase. Critics of a federal $15 floor claim that one size does not fit all—$15might be right for San Francisco or New York City, but not for Charleston, WV or Jackson, MI. But the minimum wage was intended to be a living wage for families—not a poverty wage, and not a rung on the ladder for teens in their first jobs.1 Here’s FDR in 1933: “no business which depends for existence on paying less than living wages to its workers has any right to continue in this country.... by living wages, I mean more than a bare subsistence level—I mean the wages of decent living.” Yet, as Table 1 illustrates, $15 is insufficient for the expenses of a bare bones living wage budget, even in low-cost states.2 At the same time, states and many cities with higher living costs can and have raised their wage floors above the federal minimum. They could continue to do so with a $15 federal standard. Critics also claim that $15 is so far out of our range of previous experience that it could create risky consequences; others claim that any minimum wage increase creates negative consequences for businesses and for jobs. In response, I will show that the increases implied by a phased minimum wage to $15 by 2025 do lie within the range of our previous experience. Extant academic literature does therefore

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到 2025 年 15 美元的联邦最低工资的经济学

2021 年提高工资法案 (HR 603) 将分五个年度提高联邦最低工资，从 7.25 美元提高到 2025 年的 15 美元，此后每年的增长与工资中位数挂钩。新楼层将增加近 3200 万工人的工资，约占美国劳动力的 21%（Cooper、Mokhiber 和 Zipperer，2021 年）。近三分之一的黑人工人和四分之一的西班牙裔工人将获得加薪。全年全职工人的年薪增加平均约为 3,300 美元，而且没有全职工人可以赚取贫困工资。这些令人印象深刻的数字表明，15 美元的联邦最低工资将构成一项大胆的政策创新。这将超过 1960 年代后期达到的最低工资峰值——大约 11.50 美元（以 2019 年美元计），相当于最低工资州工资中位数的 80% 左右。另一方面，目前的联邦最低标准比之前的峰值低 37%，比 2009 年的值低约 18%，即上一次联邦增加的年份。联邦 15 美元底价的批评者声称，一种尺寸并不适合所有人——15 美元可能适合旧金山或纽约市，但不适用于西弗吉尼亚州查尔斯顿或密歇根州杰克逊市。但最低工资旨在成为家庭的生活工资——不是贫困工资，也不是青少年第一份工作的阶梯。 1 这是 1933 年的罗斯福：“没有任何企业的生存依赖于支付低于工人的生活工资有任何权利在这个国家继续存在……生活工资，我指的不仅仅是维持生计的水平——我指的是体面生活的工资。” 然而，如表 1 所示，15 美元不足以支付最基本的生活工资预算，即使在低成本的州。2 同时，生活成本较高的州和许多城市可以并且已经将其工资底线提高到联邦最低标准之上。他们可以以 15 美元的联邦标准继续这样做。批评者还声称，15 美元远远超出了我们以前的经验范围，它可能会产生危险的后果；其他人声称，任何最低工资的提高都会对企业和就业造成负面影响。作为回应，我将表明，到 2025 年分阶段最低工资至 15 美元所暗示的增长确实在我们之前的经验范围内。因此，现存的学术文献确实 批评者还声称，15 美元远远超出了我们以前的经验范围，它可能会产生危险的后果；其他人声称，任何最低工资的提高都会对企业和就业造成负面影响。作为回应，我将表明，到 2025 年分阶段最低工资至 15 美元所暗示的增长确实在我们之前的经验范围内。因此，现存的学术文献确实 批评者还声称，15 美元远远超出了我们以前的经验范围，它可能会产生危险的后果；其他人声称，任何最低工资的提高都会对企业和就业造成负面影响。作为回应，我将表明，到 2025 年分阶段最低工资至 15 美元所暗示的增长确实在我们之前的经验范围内。因此，现存的学术文献确实