Numeric models (including fuzzy models) produce numeric results. There are no ideal models that deliver a complete match with the data. In this study, we advocate that a way of evaluating the quality of models can be realized at the higher level of abstraction by developing a concept of granular prediction. In this way, modeling results are expressed in the form of information granules, in particular as intervals or fuzzy sets. The study formulates a general conceptual and algorithmically supported statement: a meaningful evaluation framework to assess the quality of numeric models is the one engaging information granules. This general observation comprises a special case commonly investigated in regression analysis, where the quality of numeric results is expressed via granular constructs, namely, confidence or prediction intervals. The original design of prediction information granules is formulated as an optimization problem, in which the criteria of coverage of data and specificity of granular results are considered. In the optimization process, we also engage some nonlinear transformation of the level of information granularity depending upon the value of the numeric result. The proposed development is model agnostic and can support a variety of modeling architectures; the experimental part of the study is focused on rule-based models. Further generalizations of prediction information granules are covered by involving granular parameters in the design process.

中文翻译：

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通过预测信息颗粒评估模型质量

数值模型（包括模糊模型）产生数值结果。没有提供与数据完全匹配的理想模型。在这项研究中，我们提倡通过开发粒度预测的概念，在更高的抽象层次上实现一种评估模型质量的方法。以这种方式，建模结果以信息颗粒的形式表达，特别是作为区间或模糊集。该研究制定了一个一般的概念和算法支持的陈述：一个有意义的评估框架来评估数字模型的质量是一个有吸引力的信息颗粒。这种一般观察包括回归分析中通常研究的特殊情况，其中数值结果的质量通过粒度结构表示，即置信区间或预测区间。预测信息颗粒的原始设计被表述为一个优化问题，其中考虑了数据覆盖的标准和颗粒结果的特异性。在优化过程中，我们还根据数值结果的值对信息粒度级别进行了一些非线性变换。拟议的开发与模型无关，可以支持各种建模架构；该研究的实验部分侧重于基于规则的模型。预测信息颗粒的进一步概括包括在设计过程中涉及颗粒参数。我们还根据数值结果的值对信息粒度级别进行一些非线性转换。拟议的开发与模型无关，可以支持各种建模架构；该研究的实验部分侧重于基于规则的模型。预测信息颗粒的进一步概括包括在设计过程中涉及颗粒参数。我们还根据数值结果的值对信息粒度级别进行一些非线性转换。拟议的开发与模型无关，可以支持各种建模架构；该研究的实验部分侧重于基于规则的模型。预测信息颗粒的进一步概括包括在设计过程中涉及颗粒参数。