The fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith), is an invasive pest threatening crop production and food security worldwide. High concerns are linked to the potential establishment of the species in Europe. The high migratory capacity of S. frugiperda causes concerns about the potential impacts of transient populations invading new areas from suitable hotspots. In the present work, we developed and used a physiologically-based demographic model to quantitatively assess the risks of S. frugiperda in Europe. The risks were assessed considering a best-, a median-, and a worst-case scenario. The Mediterranean coastal areas of Southern Europe resulted particularly suitable for the establishment of the species, with suitable areas reaching even higher latitudes, in the worst-case scenario. In Europe, up to four generations per year were predicted. The predicted yearly average number of moths per trap per week (± standard deviation) was 5 (± 4), 17 (± 5), and 139 (± 22) in the best, median-, and worst-case assessment scenarios, respectively. Model results showed that Southern and Central Europe up to the 48th parallel north might be exposed to the risk of transient populations. Depending on the latitude and on the period of arrival of the propagule, 1–2 transient generations per year might be expected. The model can be used to define strategies for reducing the risks of establishment of the pest at the country level. Predictions on the dynamics and phenology of the pest can also be used to support its management at the local level.

秋季粘虫Spodoptera frugiperda (JE Smith) 是一种威胁全球作物生产和粮食安全的入侵性害虫。高度关注与该物种在欧洲的潜在建立有关。S. frugiperda的高迁移能力引起了人们对短暂种群从合适的热点入侵新地区的潜在影响的担忧。在目前的工作中，我们开发并使用基于生理的人口统计模型来定量评估S. frugiperda的风险在欧洲。风险评估考虑了最佳情况、中值情况和最坏情况。南欧的地中海沿岸地区特别适合建立该物种，在最坏的情况下，合适的地区甚至可以到达更高的纬度。在欧洲，预计每年最多四代。在最佳、中值和最坏情况评估情景中，每个诱捕器每周预测的年平均飞蛾数量（±标准偏差）分别为 5 (± 4)、17 (± 5) 和 139 (± 22) . 模型结果显示，南欧和中欧直至北纬 48 度线可能面临临时人口的风险。根据纬度和繁殖体到达的时期，预计每年可能发生 1-2 次过渡世代。该模型可用于确定降低国家一级有害生物定殖风险的战略。对有害生物动态和物候学的预测也可用于支持地方一级的管理。