To elucidate the relevance of gut dysbiosis in Parkinson’s disease (PD) in disease progression, we made random forest models to predict the progression of PD in two years by gut microbiota in 165 PD patients. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) of gut microbiota-based models for Hoehn & Yahr (HY) stages 1 and 2 were 0.799 and 0.705, respectively. Similarly, gut microbiota predicted the progression of Movement Disorder Society-Unified Parkinson’s Disease Rating Scale (MDS-UPDRS) III scores in an early stage of PD with AUROC = 0.728. Decreases of short-chain fatty acid-producing genera, Fusicatenibacter, Faecalibacterium, and Blautia, as well as an increase of mucin-degrading genus Akkermansia, predicted accelerated disease progression. The four genera remained unchanged in two years in PD, indicating that the taxonomic changes were not the consequences of disease progression. PD patients with marked gut dysbiosis may thus be destined to progress faster than those without gut dysbiosis.

为了阐明帕金森病 (PD) 中肠道菌群失调与疾病进展的相关性，我们建立了随机森林模型，通过 165 名 PD 患者的肠道微生物群预测两年内 PD 的进展。Hoehn & Yahr (HY) 阶段 1 和 2 的基于肠道微生物群的模型的受试者工作特征曲线 (AUROCs) 下面积分别为 0.799 和 0.705。同样，肠道微生物群预测运动障碍协会-统一帕金森病评定量表 (MDS-UPDRS) III 评分在 PD 早期的进展，AUROC = 0.728。产生短链脂肪酸的属，Fusicatenibacter，Faecalibacterium和Blautia的减少，以及粘蛋白降解属Akkermansia的增加，预测加速疾病进展。在 PD 中，四个属在两年内保持不变，这表明分类变化不是疾病进展的后果。因此，具有明显肠道菌群失调的 PD 患者可能注定比没有肠道菌群失调的患者进展得更快。