Since 2008, hundreds of studies have been published about conspiracy theories, many of which were in reaction to the COVID-19 pandemic. These studies are often motivated by concerns about the influence of exposure to conspiracy theories on beliefs, and the impact of conspiracy theory beliefs on behaviors. Numerous studies identify supportive correlations, concluding implicitly or explicitly that exposure causes belief and that beliefs subsequently cause behavior. We argue that while these causal relationships may exist, such conclusions currently lack robust evidence. We present an alternative model of the relationship between exposure, beliefs, and behaviors that accounts for other potentially causal factors and pathways. We encourage further work into the causal effects of exposure to, and beliefs in, conspiracy theories.

自 2008 年以来，已经发表了数百项关于阴谋论的研究，其中许多是针对 COVID-19 大流行的反应。这些研究的动机往往是担心暴露于阴谋论对信仰的影响，以及阴谋论信仰对行为的影响。许多研究确定了支持性相关性，暗示或明确地得出结论，即暴露会导致信念，而信念随后会导致行为。我们认为，虽然这些因果关系可能存在，但此类结论目前缺乏有力的证据。我们提出了暴露、信念和行为之间关系的替代模型，该模型解释了其他潜在的因果因素和途径。我们鼓励进一步研究接触阴谋论和相信阴谋论的因果关系。