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Temporal correlations among demographic parameters are ubiquitous but highly variable across species
Ecology Letters ( IF 8.8 ) Pub Date : 2022-05-24 , DOI: 10.1111/ele.14026 Rémi Fay 1 , Sandra Hamel 2 , Martijn van de Pol 3, 4 , Jean-Michel Gaillard 5 , Nigel G Yoccoz 6 , Paul Acker 1 , Matthieu Authier 7 , Benjamin Larue 8 , Christie Le Coeur 9 , Kaitlin R Macdonald 10 , Alex Nicol-Harper 11, 12 , Christophe Barbraud 13 , Christophe Bonenfant 5 , Dirk H Van Vuren 14 , Emmanuelle Cam 15 , Karine Delord 13 , Marlène Gamelon 1, 5 , Maria Moiron 16, 17 , Fanie Pelletier 8 , Jay Rotella 10 , Celine Teplitsky 16 , Marcel E Visser 4 , Caitlin P Wells 18 , Nathaniel T Wheelwright 19 , Stéphanie Jenouvrier 12, 13 , Bernt-Erik Saether 1
Ecology Letters ( IF 8.8 ) Pub Date : 2022-05-24 , DOI: 10.1111/ele.14026 Rémi Fay 1 , Sandra Hamel 2 , Martijn van de Pol 3, 4 , Jean-Michel Gaillard 5 , Nigel G Yoccoz 6 , Paul Acker 1 , Matthieu Authier 7 , Benjamin Larue 8 , Christie Le Coeur 9 , Kaitlin R Macdonald 10 , Alex Nicol-Harper 11, 12 , Christophe Barbraud 13 , Christophe Bonenfant 5 , Dirk H Van Vuren 14 , Emmanuelle Cam 15 , Karine Delord 13 , Marlène Gamelon 1, 5 , Maria Moiron 16, 17 , Fanie Pelletier 8 , Jay Rotella 10 , Celine Teplitsky 16 , Marcel E Visser 4 , Caitlin P Wells 18 , Nathaniel T Wheelwright 19 , Stéphanie Jenouvrier 12, 13 , Bernt-Erik Saether 1
Affiliation
Temporal correlations among demographic parameters can strongly influence population dynamics. Our empirical knowledge, however, is very limited regarding the direction and the magnitude of these correlations and how they vary among demographic parameters and species’ life histories. Here, we use long-term demographic data from 15 bird and mammal species with contrasting pace of life to quantify correlation patterns among five key demographic parameters: juvenile and adult survival, reproductive probability, reproductive success and productivity. Correlations among demographic parameters were ubiquitous, more frequently positive than negative, but strongly differed across species. Correlations did not markedly change along the slow-fast continuum of life histories, suggesting that they were more strongly driven by ecological than evolutionary factors. As positive temporal demographic correlations decrease the mean of the long-run population growth rate, the common practice of ignoring temporal correlations in population models could lead to the underestimation of extinction risks in most species.
中文翻译:
人口统计参数之间的时间相关性无处不在,但跨物种变化很大
人口统计参数之间的时间相关性可以强烈影响人口动态。然而,我们的经验知识对于这些相关性的方向和幅度以及它们在人口统计参数和物种生活史中的变化方式非常有限。在这里,我们使用来自 15 种具有不同生活节奏的鸟类和哺乳动物物种的长期人口统计数据来量化五个关键人口统计参数之间的相关模式:青少年和成人的生存率、繁殖概率、繁殖成功率和生产力。人口统计参数之间的相关性无处不在,正面多于负面,但在不同物种之间存在很大差异。相关性在生活史的慢快连续体中没有显着变化,表明它们更受生态而非进化因素的驱动。由于正的时间人口相关性降低了长期人口增长率的平均值,因此在人口模型中忽略时间相关性的常见做法可能导致低估大多数物种的灭绝风险。
更新日期:2022-05-24
中文翻译:
人口统计参数之间的时间相关性无处不在,但跨物种变化很大
人口统计参数之间的时间相关性可以强烈影响人口动态。然而,我们的经验知识对于这些相关性的方向和幅度以及它们在人口统计参数和物种生活史中的变化方式非常有限。在这里,我们使用来自 15 种具有不同生活节奏的鸟类和哺乳动物物种的长期人口统计数据来量化五个关键人口统计参数之间的相关模式:青少年和成人的生存率、繁殖概率、繁殖成功率和生产力。人口统计参数之间的相关性无处不在,正面多于负面,但在不同物种之间存在很大差异。相关性在生活史的慢快连续体中没有显着变化,表明它们更受生态而非进化因素的驱动。由于正的时间人口相关性降低了长期人口增长率的平均值,因此在人口模型中忽略时间相关性的常见做法可能导致低估大多数物种的灭绝风险。