Forests are atmospheric carbon sinks, whose natural growth can contribute to climate change mitigation. However, they are also affected by climate change and various other phenomena, for example, the low growth of coniferous forests currently reported globally, including in the Republic of Korea. In response to the implementation of the Paris Agreement, the Korean government has proposed 2030 greenhouse gas roadmap to achieve a Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), and the forest sector set a sequestration target of 26 million tons by 2030. In this study, the Korean forest growth model (KO-G-Dynamic model) was used to analyze various climate change and forest management scenarios and their capacity to address the NDC targets. A 2050 climate change adaptation strategy is suggested based on forest growth and CO2 sequestration. Forest growth was predicted to gradually decline, and CO2 sequestration was predicted to reach 23 million tons per year in 2050 if current climate and conditions are maintained. According to the model, sequestrations of 33 million tCO2 year−1 in 2030 and 27 million tCO2 year−1 in 2050 can be achieved if ideal forest management is implemented. It was also estimated that the current forest management budget of 317 billion KRW (264 million USD) should be twice as large at 722 billion KRW (602 million USD) in the 2030s and 618 billion KRW (516 million USD) in the 2050s to achieve NDC targets. The growth trend in Korea's forests transitions from young-matured stands to over-mature forests. The presented model-based forest management plans are an appropriate response and can increase the capacity of Korea to achieve its NDC targets. Such a modeling can help the forestry sector develop plans and policies for climate change adaptation.

中文翻译：

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综合韩国森林生长动态模型的应用，通过考虑森林管理情景和预算来实现 NDC 目标

森林是大气碳汇，其自然生长有助于减缓气候变化。然而，它们也受到气候变化和其他各种现象的影响，例如，目前全球报告的针叶林生长缓慢，包括大韩民国。为响应《巴黎协定》的实施，韩国政府提出了 2030 年温室气体路线图以实现国家自主贡献 (NDC)，林业部门设定了到 2030 年封存 2600 万吨的目标。在本研究中，韩国森林生长模型（KO-G-Dynamic 模型）用于分析各种气候变化和森林管理情景及其实现 NDC 目标的能力。基于森林生长和二氧化碳封存，提出了 2050 年气候变化适应战略。预计森林增长将逐渐下降，如果目前的气候和条件保持不变，预计到 2050 年二氧化碳封存量将达到每年 2300 万吨。根据该模型，如果实施理想的森林管理，2030 年可实现 3300 万吨二氧化碳年-1 封存，2050 年可实现 2700 万吨二氧化碳年-1 封存。据估计，目前 3170 亿韩元（2.64 亿美元）的森林经营预算应该是 2030 年代的 7220 亿韩元（6.02 亿美元）和 2050 年代的 6180 亿韩元（5.16 亿美元）的两倍。国家数据中心目标。韩国森林的生长趋势从幼熟林转变为过熟林。提出的基于模型的森林管理计划是一种适当的应对措施，可以提高韩国实现其 NDC 目标的能力。