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Friday on My Mind: Re-Assessing the Impact of Protest Size on Government Concessions
Journal of Conflict Resolution ( IF 3.211 ) Pub Date : 2022-05-13 , DOI: 10.1177/00220027221099887
Charles Butcher, Jonathan Pinckney

Do more protesters on the streets make governments likely to grant their demands? Several studies link protest size and government concessions. Yet existing research has limitations: many studies suffer from potential endogeneity due to potential protesters joining protests when they anticipate that concessions are likely, causal mechanisms are often unclear, and many of the most rigorous event-level studies are limited to Western democracies. We reexamine this relationship in a non-Western sample using a novel instrumental variable approach, using Fridays as an instrument for exogenous variation in protest size in predominately Muslim countries. We perform two analyses: one using the NAVCO 3.0 dataset, and the second using the Mass Mobilization in Autocracies Dataset (MMAD). In both analyses exogenous variation in protest size negatively affects the likelihood of concessions. Larger protests are less likely to receive government concessions. We suggest these surprising results point to the importance of unanticipated protests that produce new information about regime stability to motivate government concessions.

中文翻译:

我心中的星期五:重新评估抗议规模对政府让步的影响

更多的街头抗议者是否会让政府有可能满足他们的要求?一些研究将抗议规模与政府让步联系起来。然而,现有研究存在局限性:许多研究由于潜在抗议者在预计可能做出让步时加入抗议而受到潜在的内生性影响,因果机制通常不清楚,而且许多最严格的事件级研究仅限于西方民主国家。我们使用一种新颖的工具变量方法重新检查了非西方样本中的这种关系,使用星期五作为主要穆斯林国家抗议规模外生变化的工具。我们执行两项分析:一项使用 NAVCO 3.0 数据集,第二项使用独裁国家大规模动员数据集 (MMAD)。在这两种分析中,抗议规模的外生变化都会对让步的可能性产生负面影响。较大的抗议活动不太可能得到政府的让步。我们认为这些令人惊讶的结果表明了意料之外的抗议活动的重要性,这些抗议活动产生了有关政权稳定的新信息,以激励政府让步。
更新日期:2022-05-13
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