The composition of land use/land cover (LULC) in coastal watersheds has many implications for estuarine system ecological function. Land use/land cover can influence allochthonous inputs and can enhance or degrade the physical characteristics of estuaries, which in turn affects estuaries' ability to support local biota. However, these implications for estuaries are often poorly considered when assessing the value of lands for conservation. The focus of research regarding terrestrial and estuarine interfaces often evaluates how LULC may stress estuarine ecosystems, but in this study we sought to understand how LULC may both positively and negatively affect estuaries using measures of observed biotic richness as proxies for estuarine function. We investigated the influence of LULC on estuarine biotic richness with Bayesian hierarchical models using multiple geospatial data sets from 33 estuaries and their associated watersheds along the Gulf of Mexico coastal region of the United States. We designed the hierarchical models with observed species richness of three functional groups (FGs) (i.e., pelagic fishes, forage fishes, and shrimp) from fishery-independent trawl surveys as response variables. We then set salinity and water temperature as trawl-specific covariates and measures of influence from six LULC classes as estuary-specific covariates and allowed the models to vary by estuary, trawl program, salinity, and temperature. The model results indicated that the observed richness of each FG was both positively and negatively associated with different LULC classes, with estuarine wetlands and forested lands demonstrating the strongest positive influences on each FG. The results are generally consistent with past studies, and the modeling framework provides a promising way to systematically quantify LULC linkages with the biotic health of estuaries for the purposes of potentially valuing the estuarine implications of land conservation.

中文翻译：

---

用贝叶斯层次模型考虑土地利用/土地覆盖对河口生物丰富度的影响

沿海流域土地利用/土地覆盖（LULC）的组成对河口系统生态功能有许多影响。土地利用/土地覆盖可以影响外来输入，并可以增强或降低河口的物理特性，进而影响河口支持当地生物群的能力。然而，在评估保护土地的价值时，这些对河口的影响往往没有得到很好的考虑。关于陆地和河口界面的研究重点通常评估 LULC 如何对河口生态系统造成压力，但在本研究中，我们试图了解 LULC 如何使用观察到的生物丰富度作为河口功能的指标来对河口产生积极和消极的影响。我们使用来自美国墨西哥湾沿海地区的 33 个河口及其相关流域的多个地理空间数据集，利用贝叶斯分层模型研究了 LULC 对河口生物丰富度的影响。我们设计了分层模型，其中观察到的三个功能组（FG）（即远洋鱼类、饲料鱼和虾）的物种丰富度来自渔业独立拖网调查作为响应变量。然后，我们将盐度和水温设置为拖网特定的协变量，并将六个 LULC 类别的影响测量值设置为河口特定的协变量，并允许模型因河口、拖网计划、盐度和温度而异。模型结果表明，观察到的每个 FG 的丰富度都与不同的 LULC 类别呈正相关和负相关，河口湿地和林地对每个 FG 表现出最强的积极影响。结果与过去的研究基本一致，建模框架提供了一种有前景的方法来系统量化 LULC 与河口生物健康的联系，以潜在地评估土地保护对河口的影响。