Objectives

This study examines the relationship between incarceration time and post-release recidivism among first-time incarcerated adult offenders.

Methods

A quasi-experimental design was adopted consisting of three policy reforms that were treated as separate natural experiments. While holding imposed sentence length constant, these policy reforms either decreased or increased the required share of a sentence inmates needed to be incarcerated before being eligible for parole. Data consisted of large-scale administrative records containing all convictions for the Swedish cohorts born in 1958 and later.

Results

Results indicate that neither increased nor decreased incarceration time had a statistically significant effect on post-release recidivism, irrespective of how recidivism was measured.

Conclusions

Findings reveal little evidence for incarceration time having a criminogenic or specific preventive effect on post-release recidivism.

中文翻译：

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刑期是否会影响再犯的风险？瑞典三项政策改革的准实验研究

目标

本研究探讨了首次入狱成年罪犯的入狱时间与出狱后累犯之间的关系。

方法

采用了准实验设计，包括三个被视为单独的自然实验的政策改革。在保持强制刑期不变的同时，这些政策改革减少或增加了在有资格获得假释之前需要被监禁的囚犯的所需比例。数据包括大规模的行政记录，其中包含 1958 年及以后出生的瑞典同伙的所有定罪。

结果

结果表明，无论如何衡量累犯，监禁时间的增加或减少对释放后累​​犯都没有统计学上的显着影响。

结论

调查结果表明，监禁时间对释放后累​​犯具有犯罪或特定预防作用的证据很少。