Summary

A national, population-based study of hip fracture epidemiology is reported following a previously published study for the same population to ascertain the accuracy of projected incidence rates. Results suggest a decline in age-specific incidence rates in females but not males, and an over-estimation of same in the previously reported projections.

Purpose

Accurate estimates of hip fracture numbers and incidence rates are necessary for health service resource planning. A study in 2009 estimated projected figures for 2016 and 2026, for the Republic of Ireland. The purpose of the current study was to scrutinize these projections, based upon actual population and fracture statistics for the year 2016.

Methods

Population data was obtained from the Central Statistics Office, and hip fracture data was obtained from the National HIPE Database for the year 2016, using similar search criteria to the previously published study. Hip fracture numbers and incidence rates were calculated. The calculated figures were compared to projected figures from the previous report.

Results

Population projection models used in the 2009 paper accurately reflected the 2016 Irish population. For younger age groups, projected number of fractures closely estimated actual numbers, however, for those over 70 years of age, hip fracture projections overestimated the actual fracture numbers observed. There was a significant difference in the age-specific hip fracture rates in the over 70 s sub-groups compared to the published results of the 2009 study.

Conclusions

Hip fracture numbers continue to increase, though the age-specific incidence rates in the Republic of Ireland are reducing in the older age groups. The previously published study over-estimated hip fracture projections for the year 2016 (and potentially 2026) due to a false assumption of a stable age-specific incidence rate in the Republic of Ireland, which is in fact reducing.

中文翻译：

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爱尔兰共和国髋部骨折流行病学的变化趋势：一项后续研究

概括

在先前发表的针对同一人群的研究以确定预测发病率的准确性之后，报告了一项全国性的、基于人群的髋部骨折流行病学研究。结果表明女性而非男性的特定年龄发病率下降，并且在先前报告的预测中高估了这一点。

目的

准确估计髋部骨折数量和发病率对于卫生服务资源规划是必要的。2009 年的一项研究估计了爱尔兰共和国 2016 年和 2026 年的预测数字。本研究的目的是根据 2016 年的实际人口和骨折统计数据，仔细检查这些预测。

方法

人口数据来自中央统计局，髋部骨折数据来自 2016 年国家 HIPE 数据库，使用与先前发表的研究类似的搜索标准。计算髋部骨折数量和发生率。将计算出的数字与上一份报告中的预测数字进行了比较。

结果

2009 年论文中使用的人口预测模型准确反映了 2016 年的爱尔兰人口。对于较年轻的年龄组，预测的骨折数量与实际数量非常接近，但是，对于 70 岁以上的人群，预测的髋部骨折数量高估了观察到的实际骨折数量。与 2009 年公布的研究结果相比，70 岁以上人群的特定年龄髋部骨折发生率存在显着差异。

结论

髋部骨折数量继续增加，尽管爱尔兰共和国的年龄别发病率在老年人群中有所下降。之前发表的研究高估了 2016 年（可能还有 2026 年）的髋部骨折预测，原因是错误地假设了爱尔兰共和国的特定年龄发病率稳定，而该发病率实际上正在下降。