Russian monetary policy has been challenged by large and continuous private capital outflows and a sharp drop in oil prices during 2014. Both contributed to significant depreciation pressures on the ruble and led the central bank to give up its exchange rate management strategy. Against this background, this work estimates a small open economy model for Russia, featuring an oil price sector and extended by a specification of the foreign exchange market to correctly account for systematic central bank interventions. We find that shocks to the oil price and private capital flows substantially affect domestic variables such as inflation and output. Simulations for the estimated actual strategy and alternative regimes suggest that the vulnerability of the Russian economy to external shocks can substantially be lowered by adopting some form of inflation targeting. Strategies to target the nominal exchange rate or the ruble price of oil prove to be inferior.

2014 年，俄罗斯货币政策面临大量私人资本持续外流和油价大幅下跌的挑战。两者都导致卢布面临显着贬值压力，并导致央行放弃其汇率管理策略。在此背景下，这项工作为俄罗斯估算了一个小型开放经济模型，该模型以石油价格部门为特征，并通过外汇市场规范进行扩展，以正确解释中央银行的系统干预。我们发现，对油价和私人资本流动的冲击会极大地影响通货膨胀和产出等国内变量。对估计的实际战略和替代制度的模拟表明，通过采用某种形式的通胀目标制，俄罗斯经济对外部冲击的脆弱性可以大大降低。以名义汇率或石油卢布价格为目标的策略被证明是劣等的。