The relationship between nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations in rivers and lakes and their influencing factors have been global concerns. However, how air temperature changes affect the nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations in rivers and lakes remains unknown. In this study, we conducted analyses linking the characteristics of air temperature to monthly nitrogen and phosphorus monitoring datasets of the lake and adjacent inflowing rivers in the Lake Chaohu basin from 2014 to 2018. We found that the variations in the mean air temperature of the antecedent 7 days significantly affected the nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations in shallow eutrophic lakes, and the air temperature threshold ranged from 3 to 27 °C. As the air temperature increased, the nitrogen concentrations in Lake Chaohu decreased, but the phosphorus concentrations showed an upwards trend. The lake had a “buffer” function, as indicated by the more pronounced response of nitrogen and phosphorus to increasing air temperature in western Lake Chaohu (TN = − 0.085 mg L⁻¹ °C⁻¹, TP = + 0.004 mg L⁻¹ °C⁻¹) than eastern Lake Chaohu (TN = − 0.034 mg L⁻¹ °C⁻¹, TP = + 0.003 mg L⁻¹ °C⁻¹). The decreasing trend of nitrogen concentrations (average declining rate: 0.090 mg L⁻¹ °C⁻¹) in inflowing rivers with increasing air temperature was even more pronounced than that in Lake Chaohu. However, no significant statistical relationship was found between the phosphorus concentrations and air temperature in most inflowing rivers. Therefore, this study emphasizes the need to further unravel the coupling mechanism between internal nutrient loads and climate factors while reducing external nutrient loads.

江河湖泊中氮磷浓度的关系及其影响因素一直是全球关注的问题。然而，气温变化如何影响河流和湖泊中的氮和磷浓度仍然未知。在这项研究中，我们将 2014 年至 2018 年巢湖流域湖泊和邻近流入河流的气温特征与月氮磷监测数据集联系起来进行了分析。我们发现，前因平均气温的变化7 d显着影响浅层富营养化湖泊的氮磷浓度，气温阈值范围为3～27℃。随着气温升高，巢湖中的氮浓度下降，但磷浓度呈上升趋势。该湖具有“缓冲”功能，氮和磷对巢湖西部气温升高的响应更为明显（TN = - 0.085 mg L^-1  °C ^-1 , TP = + 0.004 mg L ^-1  °C ^-1 ) 高于巢湖东部(TN = - 0.034 mg L ^-1  °C ^-1 , TP = + 0.003 mg L ^-1  °C ^-1）。氮浓度的下降趋势（平均下降率：0.090 mg L ^-1  °C ^-1）在气温升高的流入河流中比巢湖更明显。然而，在大多数流入河流中，磷浓度与气温之间没有发现显着的统计关系。因此，本研究强调需要进一步阐明内部养分负荷与气候因素之间的耦合机制，同时减少外部养分负荷。