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Co-dynamics of climate policy stringency and public support
Global Environmental Change ( IF 8.9 ) Pub Date : 2022-05-07 , DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102528
Théo Konc , Stefan Drews , Ivan Savin , Jeroen C.J.M. van den Bergh

Public support for stringent climate policies is currently weak. We develop a model to study the dynamics of public support for climate policies. It comprises three interconnected modules: one calculates policy impacts; a second translates these into policy support mediated by social influence; and a third represents the regulator adapting policy stringency depending on public support. The model combines general-equilibrium and agent-based elements and is empirically grounded in a household survey, which allows quantifying policy support as a function of effectiveness, personal wellbeing and distributional effects. We apply our approach to compare two policy instruments, namely carbon taxation and performance standards, and identify intertemporal trajectories that meet the climate target and count on sufficient public support. Our results highlight the importance of social influence, opinion stability and income inequality for public support of climate policies. Our model predicts that carbon taxation consistently generates more public support than standards. Finally, we show that under moderate social influence and income inequality, an increasing carbon tax trajectory combined with progressive revenue redistribution receives the highest average public support over time.



中文翻译:

气候政策严格性和公众支持的协同作用

目前公众对严格的气候政策的支持很薄弱。我们开发了一个模型来研究公众对气候政策的支持动态。它包括三个相互关联的模块:一个计算政策影响;第二个将这些转化为以社会影响为中介的政策支持;第三个代表监管机构根据公众支持调整政策严格性。该模型结合了一般均衡和基于主体的要素,并以家庭调查为实证基础,该调查允许将政策支持量化为有效性、个人福祉和分配效应的函数。我们应用我们的方法比较两种政策工具,即碳税和绩效标准,并确定满足气候目标并依靠足够公众支持的跨期轨迹。我们的研究结果强调了社会影响、舆论稳定性和收入不平等对于公众支持气候政策的重要性。我们的模型预测,碳税始终比标准产生更多的公众支持。最后,我们表明,在适度的社会影响和收入不平等的情况下,随着时间的推移,不断增加的碳税轨迹与渐进式收入再分配相结合,获得了最高的平均公众支持。

更新日期:2022-05-08
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