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Observed influence of anthropogenic climate change on tropical cyclone heavy rainfall
Nature Climate Change ( IF 30.7 ) Pub Date : 2022-04-28 , DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01344-2
Nobuyuki Utsumi 1 , Hyungjun Kim 2, 3, 4
Affiliation  

The impact of climate change on tropical cyclones (TCs) is of great concern in the Western North Pacific (WNP) region. Observations suggest that there have been recent changes in TC-related heavy rainfall. However, it has not yet been determined whether anthropogenic forcing has any contribution to such changes. Here, we show evidence that the human-induced warming has considerably changed the frequency of TC-induced heavy rainfall events in the WNP region. Observations since 1961 show that the occurrence of TC-induced heavy rainfall has significantly increased along coastal East Asia, while it has decreased in the southern part of WNP. On the basis of large ensemble climate simulations, we demonstrate that the observed changes cannot be explained solely by natural variability. This suggests that anthropogenic impacts have already significantly altered the TC-induced heavy rainfall pattern in the WNP region.



中文翻译:

观测到人为气候变化对热带气旋强降雨的影响

气候变化对热带气旋(TCs)的影响在西北太平洋(WNP)地区备受关注。观测表明,近期与 TC 相关的强降雨发生了变化。然而,尚未确定人为强迫是否对这些变化有任何贡献。在这里,我们展示了人类引起的变暖已经大大改变了 WNP 地区 TC 引起的强降雨事件的频率。1961年以来的观测表明,TC诱发的强降雨在东亚沿海地区明显增多,而在WNP南部地区则有所减少。在大型集合气候模拟的基础上,我们证明了观测到的变化不能仅仅通过自然变率来解释。

更新日期:2022-04-29
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