In this paper we estimate the effect of the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) on the prices of standing timber in U.S. South using a reduced form model. The results of the estimation based on time series data covering the period between 1960 and 2019 suggest that CRP had a negative effect on the prices of standing timber in the long run. This statistically significant negative effect is estimated at about 6.5%, which may partially explain why standing timber prices in the U.S. South have stayed low for more than a decade since the great financial crisis of 2008.

中文翻译：

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美国南部的保护区计划和木材价格

在本文中，我们使用简化模型估计了保护储备计划 (CRP) 对美国南部立木价格的影响。基于 1960 年至 2019 年期间的时间序列数据的估计结果表明，从长远来看，CRP 对立木价格具有负面影响。这种具有统计学意义的负面影响估计约为 6.5%，这可能部分解释了为什么自 2008 年金融危机以来美国南部的立木价格在十多年来一直保持在低位。